Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have rebounded over recent weeks amid the start of the Fed’s easing cycle. Looking ahead, we expect EM inflows to hold up well as global monetary conditions ease further. In...

26th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

A soft patch

The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn...

26th September 2024 · 44 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus...

26th September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The decision by the Czech National Bank to cut its policy rate by a further 25bp today, to 4.25%, was followed by communications which, on balance, felt a bit more dovish than at the last meeting. We...

25th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

EM growth enters a slower phase

Aggregate EM growth is entering a softer patch, despite the tailwind from the Fed’s easing cycle. Growth concerns will prompt central banks in much of Asia to cut interest rates. But stubborn...

25th September 2024 · 26 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to resume its easing cycle today suggests that the central bank could pause interest rate cuts again very soon. We...

24th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Aug.)

The weaker-than-expected set of Polish activity data for August suggest that GDP growth softened over Q3. That said, we still maintain our forecast for relatively strong growth of 3.0% for this year...

23rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Industrial to outperform as muted recovery gets underway

After two disappointing years, commercial property values have stabilised. However, the recovery is set to be weak. We think yield falls in the coming years will be small compared to previous...

23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Flooding in Central Europe, Israel’s new phase of war

The flooding across Central Europe over the past week will likely weigh on activity in September, but we think that the economic impact will be relatively short-lived and won’t shift the monetary...

20th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 50.00%, were slightly more dovish than last month, but there are no clear signs to...

19th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Inflation and fiscal risks simmering

We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters...

17th September 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024)

EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard...

17th September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles still likely to be slow from here

While interest rate cuts by the ECB this week and the Fed next week, as well as the fall in oil prices, could set the stage for more monetary easing in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), we still think...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate today by 100bp, to 19.00%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about the inflation outlook than we’d previously thought...

13th September 2024 · 2 mins read