Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024)

Property valuations were little changed in Q1 2024, failing to build upon the considerable improvement in 2023. Property yields increased further, but the smaller rise failed to offset gains in...

16th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2024)

The Q1 GDP figures released out of Central and Eastern Europe this morning show that growth strengthened across most of the region at the start of this year, and we expect a further modest pick up...

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May)

Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today, in contrast to consensus expectations for a cut but in line with our own forecast. With inflation pressures falling more...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey: fiscal tightening an important step forwards

The fiscal tightening steps announced by Turkey’s finance ministry today, which include a freeze on most public sector construction projects, will help to prevent the large budget deficit from...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2024)

Capital flows into EM bonds and equities have fallen to their lowest in six months as investors have pared back expectations for Fed interest rate cuts. However, even with these moves, we remain more...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary-China relations: a limitless partnership?

Chinese President Xi’s visit to Hungary this week was the first by China’s head of state in 20 years and led to the establishment of an “all-weather partnership” between the two countries. There are...

10th May 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel: excess savings an upside growth and inflation risk

Private sector savings surged in Israel during the pandemic and jumped again last year amid the war in Gaza. We estimate that those built up due to the war are equivalent to around 3.0% of GDP and...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (May)

Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold as expected at 5.75% today and we don’t expect any change for some time. Still, there is now a growing possibility of an interest rate cut...

9th May 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further

The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey's trade ban with Israel: assessing the impact

The decision by Turkey last week to suspend all goods trade with Israel until there is a permanent ceasefire in the war in Gaza is unlikely to have a major macroeconomic impact in either country...

7th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Luxury rental growth to outperform mass market retail

The rebound in prime retail rents is set to wane this year. But we think prime rents on luxury high streets will continue to outperform those of mass markets in the coming years.

7th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Which survey data are giving the best steer on activity?

The two survey measures of activity released out of Central and Eastern Europe this week appeared to offer quite different insights into the performance of the region’s economies, but we’re more...

3rd May 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in April to 69.8% y/y (consensus 70.3%) offers encouraging signs that price pressures have softened again. The 3.2% m/m increase was...

3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing still going strong

The EM manufacturing PMI for April showed that industry continued its strong start to the year through to the beginning of Q2. At a regional level, the narrative was largely unchanged: India remains...

2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (May)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Czech National Bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp again today (to 5.25%) were slightly more hawkish than expected, but we still think that a...

2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read