Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Virus impact starting to be felt Consistent with the sharp fall in economic activity, occupier demand weakened further in Q2. And with bargaining power shifting to the tenant, rental falls were also evident in many markets, with the... 20th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing greater headwinds EM goods exports rebounded reasonably strongly in June and July but, with the global recovery showing signs of losing momentum, further gains from here are likely to be slow-going. 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira intervention, Russia’s vaccine, CEE inflation Turkey's central bank has acted swiftly to tighten monetary conditions to shore up the lira and they would continue on this path if strains in the balance of payments were to flare up again. Meanwhile... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2020) The Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe confirmed that the region’s industry-heavy economies suffered the largest hit in the crisis, while Poland and Bulgaria managed to escape double-digit... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why Turkey contagion risks are smaller than in 2018 Concerns are mounting that Turkey is on the brink of a fresh currency crisis which, were it to materialise, could trigger some turbulence in other EMs’ financial markets. But it’s unlikely to result... 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account data suggest Turkish lira is an outlier A fundamental force behind the growing pressure on the Turkish lira is the economy’s widening current account deficit. But in most cases, the Covid-19 crisis appears to be causing current account... 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira sell-off adds pressure on the CBRT to respond The sharp fall in the Turkish lira this week appears to be pushing policymakers towards monetary tightening, but we're not convinced that they will placate financial markets. In the past, it has... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the hit to Turkey’s current account position Turkey’s current account deficit has widened to levels not seen since 2018, which can partly be explained by a slump in tourism receipts. While this should start to reverse over the rest of this year... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Debt restructurings: lessons from Argentina & Ecuador Argentina and Ecuador’s swift debt restructuring deals may provide a blueprint for other debt-distressed sovereigns. But these deals are not quite the success stories they seem at first sight. In any... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Uneven manufacturing recovery continues The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in July (to 51.4) should be treated with caution but, even so, it still suggests that conditions in EM manufacturing are improving. The recovery is likely to be... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The further rise in the manufacturing PMIs across Central Europe in July is an encouraging sign that the economic recovery continued at the start of Q3. But the fall in Russia’s PMI last month adds to... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech GDP, Turkish inflation and lira, Russian ruble Czech Q2 GDP figures released on Friday support our view that Central Europe will recover more quickly from the coronavirus crisis than most other EM regions. Elsewhere, the Turkish central bank’s... 31st July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still grappling with virus outbreaks Much of Latin America, South Africa, and parts of Asia – notably India and the Philippines – are still struggling to contain their first waves of coronavirus. And while policymakers in these countries... 31st July 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey back in the firing line Turkish financial markets have come under renewed pressure this month, underlining the risks posed by the country’s low level of foreign exchange reserves and large external financing needs. The... 30th July 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor First signs of EM recovery losing steam Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the EM recovery hit a snag in July, partly due to escalating coronavirus cases and tightening restrictions in some EMs (South Africa, Colombia, Hong Kong). This may... 28th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU funds & CEE, Turkey sanctions, Russian oil hedging This week’s agreement on the EU budget is generally a positive outcome for Central and Eastern Europe, with fund allocations rising and Poland and Hungary rejoicing at the lack of a framework linking... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
