Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Syria tensions, coronavirus fears, Turkish credit growth Concerns about the coronavirus outbreak have hit global financial markets this week, but assets in Turkey and Russia have taken a further leg down due to tensions between the two arising from the... 28th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers among most exposed to coronavirus fallout The economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be particularly severe for a number of frontier markets. Due to its deep integration into global supply chains, Vietnam’s economy will... 27th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe provided yet more evidence that weakness in industry is spreading to domestically-focused sectors. There are no... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Coronavirus takes its toll on financial markets Concerns about the outbreak of coronavirus have taken their toll on the region’s financial markets over the past month. While the direct trade exposure of Emerging Europe to China is limited and there... 26th February 2020 · 15 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Retail outperforms Western Europe Consistent with softer economic growth, annual rental growth for office and industrial property in CEE markets slowed in Q4. However, rental growth picked up for retail, bucking the downward trend... 26th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much will recent currency falls raise inflation? We estimate that the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies will push up inflation over the next year by 0.6-0.7%-pts in Russia, Turkey and South Africa, reinforcing our view that easing cycles... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish government eyes Isbank, EU budget problems The Turkish government’s plans to transfer the opposition party’s stake in a major bank to the Treasury adds to the evidence that it is trying to gain more leverage over the banking sector. This is... 21st February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Coronavirus starting to hit EM trade There are early signs that the economic disruption resulting from China’s measures to contain the coronavirus is hitting supply chains and trade in Emerging Asia. There is also some tentative evidence... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The outbreak of the coronavirus appear to have caused a pull back of net capital inflows to EM bond and equity markets on a similar scale to that seen during flare-ups in the US-China trade war last... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central Europe inflation, Sberbank sale, Turkish lira Inflation rose above the upper level of central banks’ target ranges in Central Europe in January for the first time in over seven years but, while the Czech central bank hiked rates last week, it... 14th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2019) The weak batch of Q4 GDP data for Central & Eastern Europe show that the downturn in Germany took a bigger toll on growth across the region. Prolonged weakness in the euro-zone and softer domestic... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected Turkish activity data for December suggest that the economic recovery gathered steam in the final quarter of last year. Looser fiscal and monetary policy will keep the... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The coronavirus and the emerging world The impact of the coronavirus means aggregate EM GDP is likely to have contracted in q/q terms for the first time since the global financial crisis in Q1. If the outbreak is contained quickly, most... 12th February 2020 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central bank responses to the coronavirus fallout The economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will lead to further rate cuts in much of Emerging Asia. And in those countries where currencies have fallen sharply, the moves have not been big... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romanian politics, Poland’s judiciary, coronavirus impact Romania’s three-month old government collapsed this week, increasing the chance of early elections this year which would bring forward much-needed fiscal consolidation. That would ease investors’... 7th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Coronavirus: the financial risks for EMs The coronavirus outbreak could expose financial vulnerabilities in China and other EMs if factory and other workplace closures are extended. Within China, property developers are particularly... 6th February 2020 · 6 mins read
