Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia, Turkey, and the implications of the US election A Biden presidency would probably result in a tougher US foreign policy stance against both Russia and Turkey, paving the way for a further deterioration in relations, an increased risk of tighter... 30th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q3 2020) The 6.2% q/q rebound in Czech GDP in Q3 was stronger than expected, but this predated the surge in virus infections and tightening of restrictions which we expect to cause a renewed contraction in Q4... 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The small fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for October is consistent with the region’s recovery stalling this month. But given that the data collection period for October predates the... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Virus restrictions to trigger a renewed downturn The coronavirus outbreak across the region has gone from bad to worse. The Czech Republic has one of the highest per capita infection rates in the world and the two-week national lockdown until... 28th October 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s recovery stalls, region headed for a downturn in Q4 Russia’s economy lost steam at the end of Q3 amid a contraction in consumer spending and the next stage of the recovery will be harder given the hit to incomes, weak investment and tight fiscal policy... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery suffers a setback Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more... 22nd October 2020 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT’s ‘corridor’ tweaks disappoint Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 10.25% today but adjusted its other policy rates to give it more scope to tighten monetary conditions via the ‘corridor’... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The US election and its impact on emerging markets Whatever the outcome of the US election, we expect that the trends of US-China decoupling and deglobalisation will continue. The election result could be pivotal for some EMs: a Joe Biden victory... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech COVID-19 surge, Turkey’s current account problems The Czech government this week announced a further tightening of containment measures in an effort to control the surge in COVID-19 cases which will cause economic activity to continue to soften. In... 16th October 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Second waves will stall the near-term recovery The speed and scale of the rise in coronavirus infections across Emerging Europe has prompted a response from the authorities, but policymakers are likely to turn to much broader and tighter... 12th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recovery struggling in Central Europe, growing risks ahead The disappointing batch of August activity data for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that the initial rebound caused by the release of pent-up demand is petering out. The recent escalation of... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest bout of EM capital outflows Daily data suggest that foreign investors have been net sellers of emerging market bonds and equities in recent weeks, but there are reasons not to be very concerned. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Geopolitical tensions in Turkey, tighter restrictions in CEE The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has opened up another schism between Turkey, the EU and Russia and there is a major risk that an escalation of tensions could trigger sharp falls in the lira and push... 2nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s current account surplus is here to stay A collapse in foreign firms’ reinvested earnings and a stronger recovery in goods exports than imports have caused Poland’s current account surplus to swell to record levels during the pandemic. While... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
