Emerging Europe Economics Update Slashing our forecasts across the region Countries across Emerging Europe have stepped up their efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak over the past week or so and the economic damage will now be much more severe than we had previously... 23rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Output set to collapse, policy support likely to build The downside risks to the global economy have now become reality and the effects of the coronavirus outbreak will cause output to fall sharply in Q2 and GDP across the region will contract this year... 20th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the impact of containment measures The proliferation of measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus as well as shifts in consumer behaviour will have a severe effect on retail, accommodation, recreation and transport sectors across... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy response will be stepped up across the region The coronavirus outbreak has prompted interest rate cuts and fiscal support packages in several countries across Emerging Europe and we think that more easing lies in store. That said, Turkey’s easing... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would struggle to contain an outbreak? Extremely dense populations in urban areas, poor healthcare provision, and limited ability to impose quarantine measures mean that countries in South and South-East Asia, as well as Egypt and Nigeria... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe heading for a sharp contraction in Q2 The restrictive measures implemented by the authorities across Central and Eastern Europe to stem the spread of the coronavirus, as well as the spillover effects from the downturn elsewhere, will... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions: Alarm bells starting to ring The broad-based tightening in EM financial conditions in recent days has been similar in scale to the onset of the global financial crisis. Conditions are now particularly restrictive outside of the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil collapse, containment in CEE, new forecasts The outlook for Emerging Europe has taken a considerable turn for the worse in the past week and we have revised down our GDP growth forecasts across the region. Our 2020 forecasts are now 1-2%-pts... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Boost from low oil prices to be limited by coronavirus The collapse in oil prices will reduce current high rates of inflation in Central Europe and provide some respite for those oil importers with more fragile external positions (Turkey, Romania and... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM external vulnerabilities largest? If the recent tightening of external financing conditions is sustained, it would result in severe balance of payments strains for the usual suspects (Turkey and Argentina) as well as some of the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Coronavirus policy response, Turkey’s tourism The Russian government’s reluctance to cut oil production to shore up prices suggests that low oil prices won’t derail the government’s long-awaited stimulus package this year, but the impact of the... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Coronavirus to hit activity across Emerging Europe The spread of coronavirus outside China and its possible economic effects has prompted us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts across the region by 0.2-0.5%-pts. The scope for monetary easing is... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further increase in Turkish inflation in February probably won’t be enough to deter the central bank from easing monetary policy a little more in the next couple of months. But policymakers have... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMI slump may underestimate coronavirus hit The collapse in the EM manufacturing PMI to an 11-year low in February all but confirms that EM growth has fallen to its weakest rate since the global financial crisis. But the survey is yet to fully... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The rise in Turkey’s manufacturing PMI to a two-year high in February provides further evidence thatthe economic recovery continued at a rapid pace at the start of 2020. Elsewhere, there is some... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus: five points on the hit to EM activity so far This Activity Monitor outlines five key points on the coronavirus fallout for EMs, including what we can say about the impact so far. At the very least, it looks like the virus will cause aggregate EM... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
