Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU budget problems, CBRT delivers tightening The decisions by Poland and Hungary this week to veto the EU budget and recovery fund brought to a head a conflict about the rule of law that threatens to suspend EU funds. There's a lot at stake... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Long Run Focus The winners and losers from climate change Climate change will be more costly to EMs than developed countries, with parts of Africa, as well as South and South East Asia most vulnerable to rising global temperatures. That said, some EMs could... 19th November 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT steps up to the plate The decision by Turkey’s central bank to hike its one-week repo rate by 475bp, to 15.00%, and pledge to provide all funding through this facility appears to have done enough to convince investors that... 19th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing inflation offers room for MNB to lower rates Hungary’s central bank left its key interest rates unchanged today but the recent appreciation of the forint and signs that disinflationary forces have picked up has given the central bank scope to... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes, Czech outbreak easing, Turkey’s policy shift? With most of Emerging Europe struggling to contain virus outbreaks and with the number of deaths still on the rise, news of a potential vaccine breakthrough this week is hugely encouraging. While... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2020) The Q3 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe generally beat expectations and Poland’s economy recovered much faster than elsewhere in the region. But the recent tightening of virus restrictions... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2020) The stronger-than-expected improvement in Russian GDP growth to -3.6% y/y in Q3 means that the economy has come through this crisis in better shape than many other EMs. But the recovery lost a lot of... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What more can policymakers do? The recent tightening of virus containment measures across the region will push back the economic recovery well into 2021 and means that policy support will need to be stepped up before, as seems... 12th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly US election risks, region braces for another lockdown Joe Biden’s chances of securing the US presidency are rising and it looks like there will be a divided government in the Senate. The ruble has appreciated since the election, but the risk of tighter... 6th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Russian inflation jumped to 4.0% y/y in October as the weakness in the ruble continued to feed into stronger consumer prices. There’s now a greater chance that inflation peaks at a higher level than... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP holds fire as restrictions are tightened in Poland Poland’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 0.10% at today’s MPC meeting and opted to reinforce its commitment to its asset purchase programme rather than announce new unconventional... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lockdown not enough for CNB to cut interest rates The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept interest rates on hold at today’s MPC meeting and, despite its downbeat view on the economic outlook, gave no hint that monetary policy would be loosened further. We... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE retail set for a harsh winter The second virus wave in CEE came at a time when the region’s retail sector was already on its knees. We now expect the fall in rents to continue in Q4, albeit at a slower pace than in Q2. 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The PMIs for October were fairly strong across the region and suggest that industry continued to recover last month. However, they probably understated the impact of the latest virus restrictions in... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira sell-off adds pressure on the CBRT, protests in Poland Last week's decision by Turkey's central bank to tweak the interest rate 'corridor' has come back to bite hard with the lira falling sharply this week. This has raised talk that policymakers may be... 30th October 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor CEE entering a renewed downturn The rapid spread of COVID-19 in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) will cause a renewed slump in the region in Q4. That contrasts with India and parts of Latin America and Africa, where falling new cases... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
