Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia tax hikes, Israel rates, European elections

The tax hikes announced by the Russian finance ministry this week will help to plug the hole created by the growing military budget, but won’t deliver the scale of fiscal tightening needed to stop the...

31st May 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q1 2024)

The strength in Turkey’s economy in Q1 – GDP expanded by a whopping 2.4% q/q – was driven by a large boost from net trade while private consumption growth slowed sharply. This offers signs that the...

31st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (May)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in May and our regional-weighted measure edged down slightly. Even so, that still leaves...

30th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia: bond sell-off intensifies as the war effort steps up

Sovereign bond yields in Russia have surged to multi-year highs this year as markets have increasingly questioned the trade-off between the war effort on the one hand and policymakers’ ability to...

29th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Is the Turkish lira turning a corner?

Turkish policymakers have this week been extolling the lira’s recent stability. And the surge in foreign capital inflows after March’s rate hike suggests that there is a growing risk that the currency...

24th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Frontier Markets Wrap

Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low?

The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Croatia’s outperformance in Europe to continue

Croatia has established itself as one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and we think that it will maintain GDP growth of around 3% p.a. over 2024-26. Income convergence – which has been rapid...

23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (May)

Turkey’s central bank left its main policy rate unchanged at 50.00% again today and the statement continued to emphasise the need to keep interest rates high for a prolonged period. While the...

23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Apr.)

Poland’s activity data for April revealed that retail sales growth softened a bit more than expected last month, but that the weakness in industry in March was just a temporary blip. On balance, we...

23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2024)

Smaller property yield rises and still-solid rental growth left all-property capital values little changed in Q1, a notable improvement on the sharp falls seen since mid-2022. However, we think...

22nd May 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May)

The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 50bp again today, to 7.25%, will be followed by more cautious monetary easing over the rest of this year. We currently forecast...

21st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2024)

Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at the country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of...

20th May 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q1) and Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The 5.4% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q1 was a touch stronger than expected and, taken together with the rise in inflation in April, adds further evidence to the view that the war effort is causing the...

17th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia’s reshuffle & China ties, lithium-ion batteries

The political reshuffle in Russia this week, in which Putin replaced the defence minister and gave more responsibility to a number of ministers in charge of the economy, suggests a greater focus on...

17th May 2024 · 7 mins read