Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we think that interest rate cuts are unlikely to resume until the middle of...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey set for a slow disinflation process

Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in...

5th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in October, to 48.6% y/y, is likely to dash any remaining hopes that a monetary easing cycle will start this year. The risks now seem skewed towards...

4th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary back in recession, War in Ukraine

The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region, with Hungary’s economy significantly underperforming expectations. The risks to our GDP growth...

1st November 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP...

31st October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Sep.)

The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for September were a bit stronger than expected, although GDP growth still probably slowed over Q3 as a whole towards 3.0% y/y.

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q3)

The weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe, which showed that the Hungarian economy slipped back into recession last quarter, suggests that stagnating demand from the euro-zone is...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Our measure of capital outflows from EMs has jumped to its highest level since July 2022 amid the recent surge in US Treasury yields and strengthening of the dollar. If Donald Trump wins the US...

29th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar

The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp today, to 21.00%, is evidence that – despite President Putin’s efforts at this week’s BRICS summit to...

25th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in Q3, but we expect growth to slow over the coming quarters - despite the recent stimulus announcements in China. The threat of more protectionist trade policy in the US poses...

24th October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What would Trump mean for EM monetary policy?

A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets...

24th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The Hungarian central bank acknowledged the possibility that interest rates could be left on hold for an “extended period” after it paused its easing cycle today. We maintain our forecast that the...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Sep.)

The much weaker-than-expected Polish retail sales data for September suggest that the economy slowed more than we had been expecting in Q3. Even so, we think that this weakness was probably caused by...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read