Europe Economics Update German labour market shakeout is just beginning The German labour market held up relatively well at the start of the economic downturn, at least partly reflecting Government incentives for firms to retain workers for shorter hours. But the severity... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal rule is not as damaging as it seems The German Government’s recent introduction of a law requiring a balanced budget from 2016 has prompted much debate over just how harmful it might be. Our view is that, while the law might place... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German consumer confidence not as weak as it looks Surveys of German consumer sentiment have diverged markedly lately, with the EC survey pointin to very sharp falls in spending but the GfK version broadly consistent with stagnation. We think that the... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German 'bad bank' plan brings little encouragement The ‘bad bank’ plan approved by the German Cabinet today goes a bit further towards solving banks’ problems than measures existing elsewhere in the euro-zone. But while the plan should improve banks’... 13th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany making only slow progress on bank support The German Government’s plans for further measures to support the banking sector might sound broadly encouraging, particularly as banks there have so far not suffered as much as those elsewhere. But... 21st April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Resilience of German property yields at odds with the macro outlook To date, German property yields have proved remarkably resilient to the forces pushing property yields sharply higher in the rest of Europe. But, in our view, German property yields do not reflect the... 17th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What happened to German competitiveness? The particularly sharp collapse in German exports appears to reflect a combination of unfavourable transient factors, rather than a fundamental and permanent loss of competitiveness. This won’t... 5th March 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone risk-free rates: are German bund yields the right measure? In our analysis of euro-zone commercial property markets, we base our analysis of valuations on a comparison between property yields and the yield on a 10-year German bund, regardless of whether that... 19th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is criticism of the German Government warranted? The German Government has come under attack from the press and other European leaders for its apparent reluctance to provide its ailing economy with a fiscal boost. In fact, it has done more than is... 11th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal confirms diminishing price pressures The latest information on pay negotiations in Germany supports our view that any pick-up in wages growth in the coming months will be modest and short-lived. While this is bad news for German... 12th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German deposit guarantee a blow to government finances The German banking sector guarantee provides further confirmation that governments will do all that they can to protect households’ deposits. Although such measures should help to gradually restore... 6th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German political re-shuffle reduces chance of tax cuts The latest changes to the leadership of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) probably bode well for long-term structural reform of the economy. But they also further reduce the chance of near-term... 8th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Pick-up in German wages growth won't last long The latest evidence of rising German wages growth suggests that households’ real incomes are receiving some much-needed support. But we still expect slowing activity to prevent wages growth from... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about German banks? The recent stream of write-downs by German banks might look like a worrying sign that the crisis in financial markets is set to have a devastating impact on the economy. But there are a number of... 8th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus France to outshine Germany this year With the export-driven recovery in Germany faltering as global demand weakens, a healthy consumer sector should stand France in good stead to make up ground on its larger neighbour. While German GDP... 3rd March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal will add to the ECB’s inflation concerns The news that Germany’s largest trade union, IG Metall, has won a 5.2% pay rise over the next 14 months has added to concerns over a build-up in medium-term inflationary pressures. While we think that... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
