Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment is more bad news. But it probably reflects the euro-zone’s fiscal problems more than specific concerns about Germany. We still see the economy leading... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Jan.) January’s improvement in the EC euro-zone consumer and business survey was somewhat reassuring after the weaker tone of some of the recent other surveys. But we will need to see a sharper rise in... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (1st Est. Jan.) January’s fall in German consumer price inflation confirmed that households’ real incomes are being squeezed by much less than those elsewhere by rising prices. And inflation looks set to remain very... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) & French Consumer Spending (Dec.) January’s sharper than expected increase in German Ifo business sentiment came as a relief after the deterioration in some other surveys lately. The rise in the composite Business Climate Index, from... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will a delay in German tax cuts prevent the recovery? Hints from the German Government that promised income tax cuts could be put off until at least next year make a convincing consumer revival seem even less likely. But we still expect a relatively... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jan.) January’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment confirmed that confidence in the recovery remains fragile. We still see the German economy expanding by a pretty healthy 2.0% this year, but the... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & EZ Unemployment (Nov.) November’s renewed increase in German industrial production is a welcome sign that the recovery there is back on track. But with unemployment still rising in the euro-zone as a whole, it could be some... 8th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Labour market to weaken and weigh on German rents We expect commercial property rental values in Germany to fall across all sectors in 2010 and stabilise in 2011. In particular, we doubt that recent signs of an improvement in the German labour market... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Dec.) December’s rise in euro-zone inflation reflects temporary energy effects. With economic activity still at very low levels, deflation remains a bigger risk for the region than high inflation in the... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German banks’ troubles need not prevent recovery Concerns about German banks have increased, with the Bundesbank estimating that further hefty losses are to come and the Government warning of a worsening credit crunch. But, for the time being at... 1st December 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Commercial property outlook rosier for France than Germany Over the next two years we think that the German economy will deliver slightly stronger growth than France. Even so, we think that the downside risks to French rental values are less, while a higher... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New tax cuts to support the German economy The new German Government’s economic programme includes additional tax cuts that make what was already a fairly generous fiscal package stand out as easily the largest in the euro-zone. Policy... 26th October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German election won’t prompt early fiscal tightening The outcome of Sunday’s German election may have some bearing on the pace of fiscal consolidation. But, whichever coalition prevails, fears of early and particularly aggressive policy tightening seem... 22nd September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German occupier outlook weak despite growth in the economy The outlook for the German occupier market remains weak, despite the fact that the economy grew in Q2. We think that the labour market, which has held up well to date, could weaken in the second half... 25th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German export recovery will be gradual June’s surge in exports brought hope that the key German external sector is on the road to recovery. Unfortunately, there are good reasons to think that the pace of improvement will slow sharply in... 12th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German occupier outlook darkens as jobs shake-out gathers pace Thanks to a comparatively small labour market downturn, rental value falls for prime property in Germany have been mild relative to elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, with growing signs that the... 1st July 2009 · 1 min read
