Europe Economics Update German deposit guarantee a blow to government finances The German banking sector guarantee provides further confirmation that governments will do all that they can to protect households’ deposits. Although such measures should help to gradually restore... 6th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German political re-shuffle reduces chance of tax cuts The latest changes to the leadership of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) probably bode well for long-term structural reform of the economy. But they also further reduce the chance of near-term... 8th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Pick-up in German wages growth won't last long The latest evidence of rising German wages growth suggests that households’ real incomes are receiving some much-needed support. But we still expect slowing activity to prevent wages growth from... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about German banks? The recent stream of write-downs by German banks might look like a worrying sign that the crisis in financial markets is set to have a devastating impact on the economy. But there are a number of... 8th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus France to outshine Germany this year With the export-driven recovery in Germany faltering as global demand weakens, a healthy consumer sector should stand France in good stead to make up ground on its larger neighbour. While German GDP... 3rd March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal will add to the ECB’s inflation concerns The news that Germany’s largest trade union, IG Metall, has won a 5.2% pay rise over the next 14 months has added to concerns over a build-up in medium-term inflationary pressures. While we think that... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How are German consumers feeling? Recent surveys of consumer sentiment have suggested that German consumers are in schizophrenic mood. While they remain pretty upbeat about the economic outlook, they have yet to translate that into... 15th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German wage negotiations not a major threat to inflation Wage negotiations begin in Germany today between employers and the services and public sector unions Ver.di and DBB. The unions’ demands for an 8% pay rise have raised concerns over the buildup of a... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update DAX outperformance no longer supported by economics The outperformance of the German equity market relative to its European neighbours like France no longer appears to be supported by the latest economic indicators. 9th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus German VAT hike won't derail the economy There have been widespread fears that the imminent increase in VAT in Germany will bring the recent recovery in the euro-zone’s most important economy to a grinding halt. But an examination of... 13th December 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus World Cup 2006 - a timely kick for Germany? In less than three weeks’ time, the 2006 football World Cup kicks off in Germany. Our analysis suggests that, while the overall effects of the tournament on the German economy are unlikely to be very... 23rd May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The German recovery - not just a one year wonder? While expectations of the performance of the German economy this year have become significantly more optimistic as the various forward-looking indicators have strengthened, most forecasters still... 8th May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How strong will the German recovery be? Rising business confidence, modest falls in unemployment and the prospect of early elections have led many commentators to call the turnaround for the German economy. We have long been positive on the... 16th August 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The implications of record German unemployment German unemployment reached a post-war high in January of over five million. In this Focus we examine the statistics in more detail and assess whether the labour market reforms currently being... 18th February 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Germany underperforms France, but for how long? Germany’s economy has underperformed that of France for a number of years, but this could change if it is successful in pushing through with its reform agenda. Indeed, Germany is now particularly... 30th September 2004 · 1 min read
