Europe Commercial Property Update Commercial property outlook rosier for France than Germany Over the next two years we think that the German economy will deliver slightly stronger growth than France. Even so, we think that the downside risks to French rental values are less, while a higher... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New tax cuts to support the German economy The new German Government’s economic programme includes additional tax cuts that make what was already a fairly generous fiscal package stand out as easily the largest in the euro-zone. Policy... 26th October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German election won’t prompt early fiscal tightening The outcome of Sunday’s German election may have some bearing on the pace of fiscal consolidation. But, whichever coalition prevails, fears of early and particularly aggressive policy tightening seem... 22nd September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German occupier outlook weak despite growth in the economy The outlook for the German occupier market remains weak, despite the fact that the economy grew in Q2. We think that the labour market, which has held up well to date, could weaken in the second half... 25th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German export recovery will be gradual June’s surge in exports brought hope that the key German external sector is on the road to recovery. Unfortunately, there are good reasons to think that the pace of improvement will slow sharply in... 12th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German occupier outlook darkens as jobs shake-out gathers pace Thanks to a comparatively small labour market downturn, rental value falls for prime property in Germany have been mild relative to elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, with growing signs that the... 1st July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German labour market shakeout is just beginning The German labour market held up relatively well at the start of the economic downturn, at least partly reflecting Government incentives for firms to retain workers for shorter hours. But the severity... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal rule is not as damaging as it seems The German Government’s recent introduction of a law requiring a balanced budget from 2016 has prompted much debate over just how harmful it might be. Our view is that, while the law might place... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German consumer confidence not as weak as it looks Surveys of German consumer sentiment have diverged markedly lately, with the EC survey pointin to very sharp falls in spending but the GfK version broadly consistent with stagnation. We think that the... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German 'bad bank' plan brings little encouragement The ‘bad bank’ plan approved by the German Cabinet today goes a bit further towards solving banks’ problems than measures existing elsewhere in the euro-zone. But while the plan should improve banks’... 13th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany making only slow progress on bank support The German Government’s plans for further measures to support the banking sector might sound broadly encouraging, particularly as banks there have so far not suffered as much as those elsewhere. But... 21st April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Resilience of German property yields at odds with the macro outlook To date, German property yields have proved remarkably resilient to the forces pushing property yields sharply higher in the rest of Europe. But, in our view, German property yields do not reflect the... 17th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What happened to German competitiveness? The particularly sharp collapse in German exports appears to reflect a combination of unfavourable transient factors, rather than a fundamental and permanent loss of competitiveness. This won’t... 5th March 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone risk-free rates: are German bund yields the right measure? In our analysis of euro-zone commercial property markets, we base our analysis of valuations on a comparison between property yields and the yield on a 10-year German bund, regardless of whether that... 19th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is criticism of the German Government warranted? The German Government has come under attack from the press and other European leaders for its apparent reluctance to provide its ailing economy with a fiscal boost. In fact, it has done more than is... 11th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal confirms diminishing price pressures The latest information on pay negotiations in Germany supports our view that any pick-up in wages growth in the coming months will be modest and short-lived. While this is bad news for German... 12th November 2008 · 1 min read
