Global Markets Update Catch-22 for German Bunds Germany is caught between a rock and a hard place. If she rides to the rescue of her neighbours, she will undermine her own credit standing. If she chooses not to, the euro-zone will probably collapse... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey & GDP Breakdown (Nov./Q3) November’s slightly stronger Ifo survey will do little to ease the growing concerns over the outlook for Germany in the wake of yesterday’s unsuccessful bund auction. 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s flash PMI surveys provided further support for our view that the damaging effects of the euro-zone’s ongoing debt crisis are likely to push the region’s economy back into a deep and... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Worse to come for “core” euro-zone bonds? The yields on government bonds issued by France, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands have risen sharply in recent weeks in a worrying sign that the euro-zone’s debt crisis is starting to rot its... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Weaker investment flows in the pipeline Uncertainty about the euro-zone economic outlook is prompting property investors to act more cautiously. Activity in Q3 was driven by deals initiated before the summer’s turmoil. We agree with survey... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.) The euro-zone’s modest expansion in Q3 could be the last for some time. With more timely indicators already very weak and the debt crisis set to deepen, the risks of another very sharp recession in... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall back in 2012 and 2013 We expect the euro-zone to fall back into recession in 2012 and 2013. We have therefore cut our commercial property forecasts to reflect the weaker economic backdrop. Over the next two years, we... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & EZ Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s falls in German industrial production and euro-zone retail sales confirm that an underlying economic downturn is accompanying the region’s debt crisis. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deepening crisis to prompt widespread recession The euro-zone debt crisis is having a severely damaging impact on the European macro-economy. Not only are the troubled peripheral economies set to remain deep in recession, but growth prospects have... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) On the face of it, October’s modest decline in the headline Ifo index suggests that the German economy is still holding up reasonably well, but we continue to think that the index is understating the... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too downbeat on office rent prospects in Germany and Geneva? Survey evidence suggests that the main German cities, as well as Geneva and Moscow, are the current, preferred destinations for firms looking to expand into new markets. Yet while this points to a... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s fall in German industrial production supports other evidence that the recovery in what was previously the strongest sector of the euro-zone’s strongest economy has gone into reverse. 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German industrial property looks vulnerable to a shift in sentiment For now, the risks of a marked fall in prime industrial rental values in Germany look low, despite the recent downbeat industrial data. But the comparatively low level of industrial yields in Germany... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s modest decline in the German Ifo is a relief after sharper falls in other survey indicators. But the continued decline in the Ifo’s expectations index suggests that the euro-zone’s... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) September’s drop in the German ZEW index is another sign that the economy is suffering increasingly from slowing global demand growth and troubles in the eurozone’s periphery. 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greek and Portuguese GDP (Final Q2) & German Trade (Jul.) The Greek and Portuguese GDP figures for Q2 add to evidence that the recessions there will be more drawn out than either Government expects, suggesting that both economies will struggle to meet their... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
