Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s increase in the euro-zone composite PMI is certainly an encouraging sign, but the survey still suggests that the region is in recession. 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek debt deal won’t eliminate break-up risks The Greek government appears to be close to agreeing a deal with bond-holders which should both reduce its debt burden and ensure that it gets its second bail-out in time to finance the redemption of... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the best for the German office market passed? All the headline indicators for the German office market, i.e. take-up, vacancy rates and rents, moved in the right direction last year. But we expect the final stages of 2011 to prove to be the high... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jan.) & Euro-zone Final CPI (Dec.) January’s sharp monthly rise in the German ZEW index is certainly an encouraging sign, but the index still points to tough times ahead. 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel/Sarkozy summit adds to break-up risk Merkel and Sarkozy’s pledge to accelerate their contributions to the euro-zone’s bail-out fund following today’s summit was vaguely encouraging. But far more striking was their lukewarm support for... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property investors shun France in 2012? Bond investors’ growing preference for German over French sovereign debt is unlikely to be mirrored fully by commercial property investors in 2012. Valuations as well as economic fundamentals suggest... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Nov.) November’s fall in German industrial production confirmed that the recovery in what had been the strongest sector of the euro-zone’s strongest economy has gone into reverse. 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Have we underestimated Germany? The recent rise in some of the German business surveys has prompted optimistic media reports about Germany saving the euro-zone, acting as Santa, being a twinkling Christmas star in the euro-zone... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) The small rise in the German Ifo index in December was a welcome surprise, but it hardly transforms the outlook for the economy. 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) Despite rising slightly in December, the German ZEW index points to a risk of recession in the coming months. 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus What will a break-up mean for euro-zone commercial property? The economic and financial market dislocations that will arise from a break-up of the euro-zone will have severe, negative consequences for euro-zone commercial property markets. Indeed, we think that... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Italian Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s German and Italian industrial production data do little to alter the likelihood that the euro-zone has fallen back into recession in the fourth quarter. 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets gamble on the ECB The financial markets seem to be gambling that the European Central Bank and Germany are bluffing when they say they are not about to come to the euro’s rescue. But given the obstacles still in the... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro break-up will leave no country unscathed We expect a limited form of euro-zone break-up in the next two years to cause widespread economic disruption across the region. And with recent indicators already pointing to recession in a number of... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov./Oct.) The latest euro-zone data revealed a nasty combination of high inflation and rising unemployment to add to the region’s troubles. 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC business and consumer surveys support the message from other timely indicators that the euro-zone is entering a deep recession. 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
