Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s rise in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator suggested that the economy remains resilient. But the increase was the smallest for some time and other business surveys paint a less upbeat... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) March’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI supports the view that the region may have fallen back into recession in Q1 and that divergences with the US are widening. 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which European office markets are most at risk of oversupply? Within Europe, office markets in the euro-zone’s peripheral region appear to be most at risk of oversupply over the next two years. But less obviously, office markets in Amsterdam and Budapest also... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB really solved the crisis? The ECB’s latest liquidity operations appear to have averted, or at least delayed, a looming disaster in the euro-zone banking sector. But it would be wrong to think that they have solved the region’s... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for bond and stock markets We have revised our projections for the major Western government bond and stock markets, and for emerging markets, partly to reflect changes to our US economic forecasts and partly due to reduced... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone problems The growing imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system are another indication of the huge underlying problems still facing the currency union. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) March’s rise in ZEW investor sentiment will add to hopes that the German economy is holding up surprisingly well as other parts of the euro-zone slide back into recession. 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is a period of underperformance looming for Munich offices? Prime office capital values in Munich in 2011 outperformed the other main German cities, thanks mainly to a sharp rise in office rents. But while this rise might have raised the scope for office rents... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s rise in German industrial production reduced the immediate risk of a recession, but did little to change the underlying picture of a very sharp slowdown in the sector. 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek debt deal go through? A high participation rate in the Greek debt exchange would reduce the chances of an imminent disorderly default. But even if all bondholders take part, Greece’s public debt burden will remain... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) For now at least, Portugal, Italy and Ireland all appear to be meeting their budget deficit targets. But the Spanish deficit narrowed by much less than expected in 2011 and further slippage appears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s rise in German CPI inflation reflected a rise in energy inflation, which is unlikely to be sustained. But for now, relatively high inflation is one reason to expect consumer spending to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will German consumer optimism cause a spending revival? The recent rise in German consumer confidence looks very encouraging at face value. But with wage and employment growth already slowing, we doubt that it will be sustained. And in the meantime, fears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer survey echoed other indicators in pointing to a slight improvement in sentiment in the euro-zone. But there are few signs of the strong economic growth needed to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans are too long term After forcing yet more austerity on Greece in return for the new rescue package agreed last week, some European leaders finally appeared to adopt a more positive focus, by presenting “A Plan for... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP Breakdown (Q4) The detailed German GDP release for Q4 revealed that the 0.2% quarterly contraction reflected falls in both exports and consumer spending. While survey data point to a slight improvement in Q1, we... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
