Europe Economics Weekly Markets gamble on the ECB The financial markets seem to be gambling that the European Central Bank and Germany are bluffing when they say they are not about to come to the euro’s rescue. But given the obstacles still in the... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro break-up will leave no country unscathed We expect a limited form of euro-zone break-up in the next two years to cause widespread economic disruption across the region. And with recent indicators already pointing to recession in a number of... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov./Oct.) The latest euro-zone data revealed a nasty combination of high inflation and rising unemployment to add to the region’s troubles. 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC business and consumer surveys support the message from other timely indicators that the euro-zone is entering a deep recession. 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How and when will the euro-zone break up? The continued escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis suggests that some form of break-up of the currency union is now likely to come sooner rather than later. We expect Greece to leave the euro in... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Break-up worries finally hitting the euro Last week’s rise in German bund yields might have reflected expectations that Germany has finally accepted the need to shoulder more of the peripheral economies’ fiscal risk. After all, German... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Catch-22 for German Bunds Germany is caught between a rock and a hard place. If she rides to the rescue of her neighbours, she will undermine her own credit standing. If she chooses not to, the euro-zone will probably collapse... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey & GDP Breakdown (Nov./Q3) November’s slightly stronger Ifo survey will do little to ease the growing concerns over the outlook for Germany in the wake of yesterday’s unsuccessful bund auction. 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s flash PMI surveys provided further support for our view that the damaging effects of the euro-zone’s ongoing debt crisis are likely to push the region’s economy back into a deep and... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Worse to come for “core” euro-zone bonds? The yields on government bonds issued by France, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands have risen sharply in recent weeks in a worrying sign that the euro-zone’s debt crisis is starting to rot its... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Weaker investment flows in the pipeline Uncertainty about the euro-zone economic outlook is prompting property investors to act more cautiously. Activity in Q3 was driven by deals initiated before the summer’s turmoil. We agree with survey... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.) The euro-zone’s modest expansion in Q3 could be the last for some time. With more timely indicators already very weak and the debt crisis set to deepen, the risks of another very sharp recession in... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall back in 2012 and 2013 We expect the euro-zone to fall back into recession in 2012 and 2013. We have therefore cut our commercial property forecasts to reflect the weaker economic backdrop. Over the next two years, we... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & EZ Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s falls in German industrial production and euro-zone retail sales confirm that an underlying economic downturn is accompanying the region’s debt crisis. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deepening crisis to prompt widespread recession The euro-zone debt crisis is having a severely damaging impact on the European macro-economy. Not only are the troubled peripheral economies set to remain deep in recession, but growth prospects have... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) On the face of it, October’s modest decline in the headline Ifo index suggests that the German economy is still holding up reasonably well, but we continue to think that the index is understating the... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
