Europe Economics Weekly Austerity is the best policy Despite weaker survey data, the ECB is in no hurry to sanction further measures to boost euro-zone growth. It feels the existing accommodative policy stance is providing the region with the basic... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Recession to act as a drag on occupier markets and rents Over the past few months we have seen little reason to alter in either direction our euro-zone commercial property forecasts. With no resolution in sight to the region’s debt crisis, we think that all... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Growth to disappoint as the euro-zone crisis drags on The euro-zone economy is heading back into recession. And if we are right that the euro-zone is not sustainable in its current form, the downturn will extend into 2013 and eventually encompass all... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Apr.) April’s EC business and consumer survey confirmed the downbeat picture painted by other recent indicators and dashed any lingering hopes that the euro-zone economy may escape a double-dip recession. 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austerity backlash brings new dangers The backlash against austerity in the euro-zone could improve the region’s growth outlook. But it brings new dangers too, not least by putting dissenting countries on a collision course with Germany. 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are real estate equities understating the risks for 2012? An analysis of real estate equity prices suggests that our strongly negative capital value growth projections for 2012 may be pessimistic. However, since equity markets have not yet fully priced in... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German consumer boom is a myth The recent resilience of the German economy has prompted us to become a little more upbeat regarding its prospects. But notwithstanding the continuing falls in unemployment, we suggest that talk of a... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) Today’s German Ifo survey came in ahead of market expectations, although it posted only a small improvement compared with March. Predictions that the German economy will be strong enough to pull the... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (April) Today’s improvement in the ZEW economic sentiment survey is consistent with resilience being shown by the German economy. But it is unclear that this optimism can be maintained given the nature of the... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis unsolved as growth outlook darkens Hopes that the crisis in the euro-zone had been solved by Greece’s debt restructuring and the ECB’s recent liquidity injections have faded. Despite some signs of resilience in Germany, the economic... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB has limited ammunition Markets last week seized on hints from the ECB that it may restart its bond purchase programme in an attempt to contain Spanish bond yields. But there are clear doubts over whether the ECB has the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bunds increasingly vulnerable to erosion of safe haven status German government bonds are still regarded as a safe haven, allowing them to benefit from concerns about the global economy and the rolling crisis in the periphery of the euro-zone. Some of the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) Germany’s February industrial production figures brought further signs that the former engine of the euro-zone economic recovery has gone sharply into reverse. 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak service sector putting the brakes on euro-zone office rent growth This morning’s PMI data suggest that business activity in the euro-zone’s service sector remains subdued. And if the past relationships between employment PMIs and office rental value growth continue... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update As good as it gets for German retail rents? February’s fall in German retail sales volumes served as a timely reminder that the strong recovery in retail rents in the euro-zone’s largest economy cannot be taken for granted. Nevertheless, while... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Retail Sales (Mar./Feb.) March’s euro-zone CPI inflation data confirmed that stubbornly high inflation is adding to the squeeze on households’ purchasing power from rising unemployment and fiscal tightening. 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
