Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) For now at least, Portugal, Italy and Ireland all appear to be meeting their budget deficit targets. But the Spanish deficit narrowed by much less than expected in 2011 and further slippage appears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s rise in German CPI inflation reflected a rise in energy inflation, which is unlikely to be sustained. But for now, relatively high inflation is one reason to expect consumer spending to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will German consumer optimism cause a spending revival? The recent rise in German consumer confidence looks very encouraging at face value. But with wage and employment growth already slowing, we doubt that it will be sustained. And in the meantime, fears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer survey echoed other indicators in pointing to a slight improvement in sentiment in the euro-zone. But there are few signs of the strong economic growth needed to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans are too long term After forcing yet more austerity on Greece in return for the new rescue package agreed last week, some European leaders finally appeared to adopt a more positive focus, by presenting “A Plan for... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP Breakdown (Q4) The detailed German GDP release for Q4 revealed that the 0.2% quarterly contraction reflected falls in both exports and consumer spending. While survey data point to a slight improvement in Q1, we... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s rise in the German Ifo index adds to evidence that the economy might avoid falling into recession in Q1, but this still looks set to be a tough year. 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone commercial property recovery hopes dashed by PMIs This morning’s “flash” release of euro-zone PMI data poured cold water on hopes that Q4’s quarterly economic contraction would be a one-off. Indeed, it looks as though the euro-zone is now in a... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s fall in the euro-zone PMI puts a bit of a dent in hopes that Q4’s economic contraction will prove to be a one off. 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Yield recovery on the brink of going into reverse The final quarter of 2011 brought the strongest evidence yet that the downward phase in euro-zone commercial property yields has not only come to an end, but has started to go into reverse. Falling... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The provisional Q4 euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted at the end of last year, albeit by a bit less than had been feared. The 0.3% quarterly fall was slightly better than the... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.), & German ZEW (Feb.) 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece on the brink, yet again The immense difficulties in finalising a second rescue package and debt restructuring for Greece have pushed the country right to the brink once more. Even if the policymakers manage again to step... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s drop in German industrial production was a serious blow to hopes that the economy might be recovering. The 2.9% monthly fall was far weaker than the consensus forecast of no change and came... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crunch year for the euro-zone? While the news on the euro-zone economy has improved a bit in the last month or two, 2012 could still turn out to be crunch year for the currency union. Fiscal progress in the peripheral economies has... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Compact agreed, but economies diverge While European leaders have now agreed to the fiscal compact proposed last year, its terms have been diluted significantly. Meanwhile, their economies have continued to diverge. Most worryingly, while... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
