Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial production figures did little to reduce the danger that the German economy tipped into recession in the second quarter. 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) July’s Ifo index will add to the growing concerns over the health of the German economy and the outlook for the country’s credit rating. 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) July’s fall in the ZEW investor expectations index is another sign that Germany’s earlier economic resilience is over. The weakness of sentiment regarding even the region’s strongest economy supports... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) July’s fall in the ZEW investor expectations index is another sign that Germany’s earlier economic resilience is over. The weakness of sentiment regarding even the region’s strongest economy supports... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fall in Bund yields does not change weak property price outlook The sharp fall in 10-year German Bund yields since the end of Q1 has pushed all-property/Bund yield spreads in the euro-zone to new highs. Clearly, property yields now incorporate some allowances for... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s monthly bounce in German industrial production does not alter the picture of a sharp slowdown in the sector previously considered the economy’s main engine of growth. 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack German Bunds start to lose their shine The yield on ten year German Bunds rose by around 30bp in June, despite the fact that the yield on ten year US Treasuries barely increased. The rise in the ten year Bund yield may have partly... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Most European office markets to suffer drop in take-up Our recent finding that the investment component of the German national accounts data is related to office take-up volumes seems also to apply in most other European office markets. Accordingly, our... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jun) June’s EC survey mirrors the picture from other timely indicators lately that the euro-zone is in a deepening and broadening recession. This further underlines the need for policymakers to come up... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would euro break-up mean for Emerging Europe? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone could knock some 2-3% off the level of Emerging Europe’s GDP by the end of 2013. But a bigger, more disorderly, break-up would... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bail-out talks are the next key hurdle for Greece The formation of a coalition Government headed by New Democracy has reduced the chances of Greece exiting the euro-zone imminently. But the political situation remains precarious and the Government’s... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) June’s German Ifo survey reinforced the message already given by the ZEW and PMI surveys earlier this week that the euro-zone’s main growth engine has stalled. 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jun.) June’s plunge in the headline German ZEW index provides further support for the view that the intensifying debt crisis is starting to hit Germany pretty hard. 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What’s left in the pot? Our prediction last week that market optimism towards the Spanish banking bail-out would be short-lived was borne out more quickly and decisively than even we had anticipated. Even by the standards of... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking union is only part of the answer Talk of an EU banking union provides some hope that policymakers are starting to address one of the potential triggers for a euro-zone break-up. But the prospect of a full-blown banking union seems as... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower office take-up volumes in store for Germany On past form, the drop in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) seen in Germany in the first quarter is a signal that a sharp fall in office take-up is likely to follow. We expect investment to fall... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
