Europe Economics Weekly The ECB has limited ammunition Markets last week seized on hints from the ECB that it may restart its bond purchase programme in an attempt to contain Spanish bond yields. But there are clear doubts over whether the ECB has the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bunds increasingly vulnerable to erosion of safe haven status German government bonds are still regarded as a safe haven, allowing them to benefit from concerns about the global economy and the rolling crisis in the periphery of the euro-zone. Some of the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) Germany’s February industrial production figures brought further signs that the former engine of the euro-zone economic recovery has gone sharply into reverse. 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak service sector putting the brakes on euro-zone office rent growth This morning’s PMI data suggest that business activity in the euro-zone’s service sector remains subdued. And if the past relationships between employment PMIs and office rental value growth continue... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update As good as it gets for German retail rents? February’s fall in German retail sales volumes served as a timely reminder that the strong recovery in retail rents in the euro-zone’s largest economy cannot be taken for granted. Nevertheless, while... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Retail Sales (Mar./Feb.) March’s euro-zone CPI inflation data confirmed that stubbornly high inflation is adding to the squeeze on households’ purchasing power from rising unemployment and fiscal tightening. 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s rise in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator suggested that the economy remains resilient. But the increase was the smallest for some time and other business surveys paint a less upbeat... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) March’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI supports the view that the region may have fallen back into recession in Q1 and that divergences with the US are widening. 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which European office markets are most at risk of oversupply? Within Europe, office markets in the euro-zone’s peripheral region appear to be most at risk of oversupply over the next two years. But less obviously, office markets in Amsterdam and Budapest also... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB really solved the crisis? The ECB’s latest liquidity operations appear to have averted, or at least delayed, a looming disaster in the euro-zone banking sector. But it would be wrong to think that they have solved the region’s... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for bond and stock markets We have revised our projections for the major Western government bond and stock markets, and for emerging markets, partly to reflect changes to our US economic forecasts and partly due to reduced... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone problems The growing imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system are another indication of the huge underlying problems still facing the currency union. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) March’s rise in ZEW investor sentiment will add to hopes that the German economy is holding up surprisingly well as other parts of the euro-zone slide back into recession. 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is a period of underperformance looming for Munich offices? Prime office capital values in Munich in 2011 outperformed the other main German cities, thanks mainly to a sharp rise in office rents. But while this rise might have raised the scope for office rents... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s rise in German industrial production reduced the immediate risk of a recession, but did little to change the underlying picture of a very sharp slowdown in the sector. 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek debt deal go through? A high participation rate in the Greek debt exchange would reduce the chances of an imminent disorderly default. But even if all bondholders take part, Greece’s public debt burden will remain... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
