Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The slump in German industrial production in December pours cold water on the hopes of an industrial recovery. And though the recent pick-up in industrial orders suggests the outlook for the start of... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Analysing public debt sustainability in the euro-zone Among the largest euro-zone countries, public debt looks most worrying in France because it is on an upward trajectory and Italy because it is likely to remain very high. Government debt is also set... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly French bond rally looks overdone The French government's survival after bypassing parliament to implement the 2026 budget has done nothing to improve the country's long-term debt dynamics. So we think that the recent narrowing of... 30th January 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2025) & Unemployment (Dec. 2025) Euro-zone GDP growth remained around its trend rate in Q4 and we expect it to maintain that pace in 2026. 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain GDP (Q4 2025) National data published this morning suggest that euro-zone GDP grew by a slightly stronger-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q4. Spain remained the star performer, while Germany, France and Italy also... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (January 2026) The weaker-than-expected German Ifo in January pours some cold water on expectations that the German economy might be finally turning the corner. The fiscal stimulus should still cause growth to pick... 26th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone PMIs (January 2026) While the new year has begun with a lot of geopolitical turbulence, the flash PMIs for January suggest that the euro-zone economy is still expanding at a moderate pace while price pressures rose a... 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany: AfD to keep shaping policy from the sidelines The Alternative für Deutschland’s continued rise in the polls has been accompanied by renewed calls for mainstream German parties to abandon their “firewall” policy. But as long as the AfD clings on... 21st January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe will move cautiously over Greenland threats If implemented and sustained for a long period, the new tariffs that President Trump has threatened over the Greenland dispute could cost the euro-zone economy something between 0.2% and 0.5% of GDP... 19th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Greenland tariffs: the political consequences would trump the economic It remains unclear whether President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries unless a deal is reached to acquire Greenland will ever materialise. But if it does, the economic... 18th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry is in structural decline Euro-zone industrial production rose in November, and the outlook for certain sectors – such as defence and pharmaceuticals – is fairly bright. But overall, industry is likely to remain weak and it... 15th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany's GDP (2025) The first estimate of annual GDP for 2025 confirms that Germany’s much-vaunted fiscal “stimulus” did not get underway last year and that economic activity remained broadly stagnant. We think things... 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (November) The rise in output in November confirmed that conditions in German industry improved towards the end of last year. But given the significant structural headwinds facing the sector, we doubt this is... 9th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2026 The recovery in European commercial property values is set to slow this year given the soft economic growth backdrop and elevated interest rates. Our forecast for euro-zone all-property total returns... 7th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (December) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation fell below 2% in December and that the core rate edged down. ECB policymakers will take that as confirmation that... 6th January 2026 · 2 mins read
