Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Nov.) & German GDP (2012) The latest euro-zone trade data and the 2012 German GDP figures do nothing to alter the view that the euro-zone economy ended the year on a low note. 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone recession to deepen in 2013 While the lull in the euro-zone debt crisis has continued in recent months, the news on the region’s economy has remained distinctly downbeat. Despite some improvement towards the end of last year... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s small rise in the German Ifo business survey is moderately encouraging news. But the index still points to economic stagnation in the near term. 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec. 12) December’s rise in ZEW investor sentiment provides only limited hope for the German economy given clear signs of a downturn in the recent hard data and the latest developments in Greece and Italy. 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Trade/French & Italian Industrial Prod’n (Oct.) October’ trade and industrial production figures for the euro-zone’s largest three economies brought further evidence that the recession in the region will deepen in the fourth quarter and that it has... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) The further drop in industrial production in October to its lowest level in two decades raises the chances of a triple dip recession in the wider economy. 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will core market property yields be immune to the downturn? Outside the peripheral markets, the economic downturn in the euro-zone has yet to have a material impact on commercial property values. Yet if the recession deepens as we anticipate, the next six... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would a euro break-up affect the core? A euro-zone break-up would see the re-instated domestic currencies of the region’s core economies appreciate sharply. Without appropriate policy action, the resulting damage to exports would more than... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core economies managed before the euro The common perception that the euro-zone’s core economies are inherently dependent on exports and would struggle to grow outside the single currency is misplaced. They all achieved pretty strong... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep. 12) September’s German industrial production figures poured cold water on recent talk of a recovery in the euro-zone’s biggest economy. 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will German property rents be immune to the downturn? Recent business surveys do nothing to undermine our forecast that Germany will lapse back into recession next year. Admittedly, that recession should be mild. But that is unlikely to prevent... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Composite PMI & German Ifo Survey (Oct.) October’s euro-zone PMI and German Ifo surveys continued to paint a pretty dismal picture of growth prospects in the region as a whole and confirmed that Germany is also suffering. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook A lull in the storm Expectations of stronger policy support from the European Central Bank have prompted a period of relative calm in the euro-zone. But previous lulls have not lasted for very long. There are still few... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.), EZ Trade & Final CPI (Aug./Sep.) October’s rise in the German ZEW index suggests that the prospect of ECB bond purchases has continued to ease investors’ fears for the economy. And August’s trade data suggest that the euro-zone as a... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
