Europe Economics Weekly Germany likely to prevail in austerity debate Last week brought mixed news in the debate on growth versus austerity. On the one hand, EU leaders discussed and (to some extent) advocated growth policies at an EU summit. What’s more, the European... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q4), French Ind. Prod. & German Trade (Jan.) On balance, the latest batch of hard economic data from the euro-zone’s three largest economies makes fairly grim reading and casts further doubt on the view that the region as whole has begun to grow... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s German industrial production figures added to the evidence that the economy entered 2013 in a better state than it ended 2012. But for the time being at least, growth seems to be modest at... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb.) February’s fall in German CPI inflation should ease fears of inflationary pressure in the euro-zone’s largest economy despite the continued fall in unemployment. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Economic fundamentals point to softening German investment market Supported by a wider improvement in financial markets, investment demand for German commercial property surged in Q4 last year, despite the economy contracting sharply. But risk appetite looks to be... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) & GDP Breakdown (Q4) The second release of German Q4 GDP data confirmed that GDP fell sharply as exports weakened. But the rise in the Ifo in February supports other recent evidence that the economy has since recovered... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fears about German wage growth are overdone The recent rise in German wage growth and signs of a further increase to come have prompted fears of a pick-up in inflation and loss of competitiveness. We think that these worries are overdone... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s rise in German ZEW investor sentiment added to the positive signs for the economy. But we still think it is too soon to bank on a strong and sustained recovery. 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German exports to outperform despite stronger euro The recent rise in the euro exchange rate is likely to hit Germany and Finland hardest given their strong trade links with non-euro-zone countries. But with exports from the south and periphery set to... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mariodona’s words won’t be enough Mario Draghi halted the rise of the euro last week merely by hinting that the ECB might respond to the currency’s strength. But with other central banks taking action to weaken their currencies, we... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s rise in German industrial production does not alter the likelihood that GDP fell sharply in Q4, but it does add to signs that the economy entered 2013 in a slightly better state. 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could the spread between yields in Paris and Munich reverse sign? Recent data show that the French economy is lagging behind Germany. If we are right that this divergence will grow, the low levels of property yields in Paris relative to Munich look unsustainable... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Gap between Germany and France to widen Recent economic data suggest that France is lagging further behind Germany. If anything, we suspect that this gap will widen as the year goes on, leading tensions between the two countries to rise. 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s increase in the German Ifo business climate index provides further hope that the economy will fare better in Q1 than Q4. 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jan.) January’s sharp rise in German ZEW investor sentiment suggests that activity may have improved at the start of 2013 following a very weak end to last year. 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Post-election Germany might offer periphery more support Yesterday’s narrow loss for Germany’s current governing coalition in the state of Lower Saxony added to evidence that September’s general election could result in a change of government. While Angela... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
