Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Nov.) November’s rise in German ZEW investor sentiment came as a modest relief after the recent gloomy news on the euro-zone. But the index has not been very reliable in the past and it remains consistent... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 Prov.) The small expansion in the euro-zone economy in Q3 has not diminished the need for both the European Central Bank (ECB) and national governments to respond to the persistent risk of deflation in the... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French GDP (Q3) Q3’s near stagnation of the German economy confirmed that economic weakness has spread to the core of the single currency area. While France performed marginally better, it seems that the euro-zone... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office occupier market stronger than take-up data suggest There are a number of reasons to think that the German office occupier market is stronger than third quarter take-up data suggest. And, with vacancy rates low and the majority of upcoming developments... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s disappointing rebound in German industrial production increased the risks that both the German and euro-zone economies contracted in Q3 and added to the pressure on the ECB and German... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus 25 years on from the “Fall of the Wall” The fall of the Berlin Wall marked the start of the transition from central planning to market-based economies in Central and Eastern Europe, which in turn paved the way for a sharp rise in prosperity... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in September but France and Italy submitted draft budgets that flouted EU fiscal rules. 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking sector recovery still appears fragile Last week’s bank stress test results, September’s lending data and the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey all suggested that conditions in the euro-zone’s banking sector are, on the whole, improving... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s EC Business and Consumer Survey suggests that the euro-zone economy got off to a weak start in Q4, after broadly stagnating in Q3. 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) October’s fall in Ifo business sentiment was a blow to hopes that the German recovery should resume at the end of the year and will add to pressure on the Government there to consider a fiscal boost. 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets and Merkel won’t let austerity slip Last week’s rise in peripheral euro-zone bond yields mainly reflected contagion effects from Greece’s sell-off, rather than general fiscal concerns. Indeed, draft 2015 budgets showed most countries... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update German weakness takes its toll on CEE Of all the reasons to expect softer growth in Central and Eastern Europe, the weakness of the German economy is by far the most compelling. Indeed, we estimate that it accounts for the bulk of the... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Treasury and Bund yields continue to diverge? Although the spread between the yields of 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds is already close to its largest since the start of European Monetary Union, we see little reason why it should not... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Stalled recovery adds to pressure on policymakers The European economic recovery has weakened, with the euro-zone now at risk of recession and countries outside the region feeling the effects on their exports. While the euro-zone’s peripheral... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany needs more stimulus for its own sake Recent renewed calls for the German Government to take advantage of its fiscal room for manoeuvre in order to stimulate its economy have centred on the potentially beneficial effects on its weaker... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
