Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW & Euro-zone Bank Lending Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in ZEW investor sentiment showed that confidence in the German economy was holding up well despite fears for Greece. But investors may take a dimmer view following this week’s Greek... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly SNB move is a heavy blow for the Swiss economy The sharp appreciation of the franc caused by the Swiss National Bank’s abandonment of its currency ceiling last week led to a substantial drop in the domestic value of the SNB’s foreign currency... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How will German logistics occupier demand fare this year? Despite Germany’s recent slowdown, logistics operators and customers report that market conditions are above average. And, despite our forecasts for overall soft economic growth this year, trade and... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French and Spanish Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s country data on industrial production and trade suggest that the euro-zone’s major economies have continued to stagnate at best, increasing the threat of a prolonged bout of deflation in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s German Ifo survey provided some comfort that recent overseas events have not yet hit the economy, but remains consistent with only weak rates of expansion. 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Subdued German occupier demand offset by tight supply The subdued outlook for German GDP growth suggests that occupiers will be cautious with regard to expansion plans in 2015. Nevertheless, relatively tight office and retail supply conditions imply that... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) & Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) December’s sharp rise in German ZEW investor sentiment is an encouraging sign that confidence has so far not been hit by renewed problems in Greece, but the improvement is at odds with the weakness of... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s modest rise in German industrial production suggests that the benefits of a weaker euro are so far being offset by weak demand in Germany and the rest of the euro-zone and bodes ill for GDP... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Further yield compression to boost capital values Further monetary easing from the ECB is unlikely to be decisive enough to put the euro-zone on a stronger growth trajectory, implying that the outlook for occupier markets is subdued. Nevertheless... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What will lower Bund yields mean for property? Recent cuts to our Bund yield forecasts reflect our view that the euro-zone economy will struggle to gain traction over the next year or two. Yet, on balance, by creating the scope for property yields... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov.) November’s fall in German inflation to a five-year low highlights the absence of price pressures in even the strongest parts of the euro-zone. And while German unemployment remains very low, this... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Bunds the new JGBs? While we are still not convinced that the euro-zone is the new Japan, despite the many similarities in their economic predicaments, we are increasingly of the view that the 10-year Bund yield will... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3) & French Business Confidence (Nov.) The second release of Q3 German GDP confirmed that the economy expanded by a meagre 0.1%. The breakdown offered some hope, with consumer spending and exports rising strongly, but surveys suggest that... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s rise in the German Ifo survey is a relief after the fall in the PMI and leaves the key surveys painting a somewhat mixed picture. But both point to slow growth at best, which will do little... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB divisions point to half-hearted QE The objections of German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann to the prospect of an ECB quantitative easing programme including government bond purchases are unlikely to prevent such a programme being... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
