Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Oct.) October’s German industrial production and French trade data suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth quarter than the business surveys had implied. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time for Italy? A rejection of Matteo Renzi’s proposed constitutional reforms in Sunday’s referendum could plausibly set Italy on a path towards an eventual exit from the euro-zone, an outcome not remotely priced in... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s German inflation data suggest that euro-zone inflation was unchanged at a low level. And while energy effects should cause headline inflation to rise sharply in the months ahead, the German... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) adds to the evidence that the economy has performed fairly well so far in Q4. However, we expect growth to slow next year, putting pressure on... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.) The second estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed the message from national data that the economic recovery maintained its pace in Q3. However, we think that growth will slow over the coming quarters. 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Sep.) September’s sharp drop in German industrial production partly reflected payback from a sharp rise last month, and production posted a solid gain in Q3 as a whole. Nonetheless, the data are... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How far can German property yields fall? Prime property yields in Germany continue to fall. Yet, despite being well below pre-financial crisis lows, commercial property still looks fairly valued relative to other assets. With the ultra-loose... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & German New Orders (Sep.) The fading boost to consumers’ spending power from lower energy prices may bebehind September’s fall in euro-zone retail sales. As we have warned for sometime, consumer spending growth is set to... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany-France divergence looks set to last Last week brought some good news about the euro-zone economy, with October’s composite PMI and EC ESI both pointing to an acceleration of growth. But both the hard data and survey indicators look much... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s rise in German HICP inflation to +0.7% suggests that euro-zone inflation in the same month rose to its highest level since April 2014. But in Germany at least, the rise reflected energy... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rally in Berlin office rents not over yet Prime office rents in the German capital, Berlin, have surged this year. With a positive economic environment and limited development pipeline, the rise in rental values has further to run. 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) October’s increase in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) adds to a recent run of positive news about the economy. Germany looks set to easily outperform the euro-zone average this year... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling now “fair” value? Although sterling has fallen a long way since the vote for Brexit, the IMF’s latest forecasts for the UK’s current account balance suggest that there is no fundamental reason for it to bounce back... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tide turning towards stimulus With central banks running out of firepower, public finances in a better state than they have been for a long time and sovereign bond yields exceptionally low, it is not surprising that some... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is broadly encouraging, although the index still points to a slowdown in German GDP growth. 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Aug.) Sharp rises in industrial production in Germany, France and Spain suggest that industry might contribute positively to euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
