Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The small increase in the headline Ifo Business Climate Index for September leaves it at a very low level and does not alter the fact that Germany seems to have entered recession in Q3. Moreover, the... 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wishful thinking about German fiscal policy While far from certain, there is a growing chance that the German government announces a fiscal stimulus in the coming weeks or months. However, even if it does, we think any boost to demand would be... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French industry looks resilient to German slowdown We expect French industrial production growth to slow in the coming year or so. But it should continue to outperform German industry thanks to its focus on less cyclical products such as food, energy... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany now more vulnerable to no-deal Brexit Germany could have taken the UK’s departure from the EU in its stride a couple of years ago but it will be hit quite badly if a no-deal Brexit occurs in two months’ time. 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q2), E-Z Industrial Production (June) The decline in German GDP in Q2 and sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production in June provide further evidence of the severity of the slowdown in Europe. What’s more, a deteriorating global... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (June) The 1.5% fall in German industrial production in June kills off any hopes that the strong orders data published yesterday marked the beginning of a recovery. On the contrary, with business surveys all... 7th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Little chance of a big fiscal boost from Germany German opinion polls suggest that there is a growing chance that the next federal government, which will be formed after elections due by late 2021, will be a coalition including the Green party... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update H1 data point to stronger German office rental growth The latest data for German offices suggest a better-than-expected start to 2019, as a result of solid employment growth and tightening supply. This has led us to revisit our office forecasts for the... 5th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) July’s decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index is consistent with the message from the PMI that the German economy made a very slow start to Q3. We still suspect that the ECB will wait until... 25th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) The small increase in output in May does not signal the end of the Germany’s manufacturing downturn. On the contrary, it now looks almost certain that production declined in Q2 overall, contributing... 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s fall in industrial production adds to the evidence that Germany has not shaken off the problems which hit it nearly a year ago, and suggests that the economy slowed sharply in Q2. 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eight quick points about the European elections Projections of the results of the European elections confirm that pro-European parties will continue to have a clear majority in the European Parliament (EP) itself, so little will change at EU level... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No smoking gun in German industrial slowdown While the sharp downturns in the German motor vehicle and chemical sectors have attracted a lot of attention, the weakness of other sectors accounts for more of the slowdown in production since 2017... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bunds rally amid trade tensions and Italian fiscal risks Developments this week suggest that Italy’s government is on another collision course with the European Commission. Meanwhile, the risk of US car tariffs has eased, but it has not disappeared. Finally... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update After a stable 2018, Berlin office yields can fall again Prime office yields in Berlin have been stable over the past 18 months, in spite of strong rental growth expectations. With tighter monetary policy now some way off, and yields on assets with a... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tariffs remain a big risk for the DAX Although equities in the euro-zone have fallen sharply in the past week as the US-China trade dispute has flared up again, they are still much higher than they were at the start of the year. This... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
