Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Emp. (Q4) Given that the German economy stagnated in Q4 last year it will have come as a relief that GDP growth for the euro-zone as a whole was not revised down from +0.1% q/q. We think that Germany will... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office rents to hold up despite boost to supply Softer office occupier demand is expected to weigh on German prime office rents this year. But we still think that rents can grow at a decent pace because, even though office supply is expected to... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) The 3.5% slump in industrial production in December flies in the face of the widely-held view that Germany’s manufacturing sector was on the mend at the end of last year. And even before the... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German HICP (Jan.) The increase in Germany’s headline HICP inflation rate to 1.6% in January was a little smaller than most had expected and was driven by higher energy inflation. Underlying inflation seems to have... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2019) News that the German economy expanded by 0.6% last year, down from 1.5% in 2018, suggests that it narrowly avoided another contraction in Q4. Nonetheless, we think that GDP is unlikely to expand... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) While the increase in industrial production in November comes as a bit of a relief, it merely reversed the decline in the previous month and still means that output is likely to have fallen again in... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s Ifo Business Climate Index was a bit better than expected, but it still suggests that the German economy is struggling to grow. We expect GDP growth to remain very weak at the start of next... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharp drop in production in October was driven by a slump in auto production and suggests that, far from bottoming out, Germany’s industrial contraction may even be getting worse. The economy... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s Ifo Business Climate Index suggests that Q3’s small increase in German GDP was not the beginning of a recovery. We think that the economy will contract in the coming quarters. 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Still some upside for German prime industrial rents While the manufacturing downturn has not helped the industrial sector in Germany at a national level, growing e-commerce means that prime industrial rents will still muster some growth over the next... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sept.) The decline in industrial production in September confirms that German manufacturers are still firmly in a recession. We expect this to continue well into next year, causing the economy as a whole to... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Gloomy outlook for German retail rents Although occupier demand appears to be holding up in Germany, a combination of structural and cyclical factors has weighed on retail rents. And with meagre economic growth expected until at least the... 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) held steady at a very low level in October and, in line with the message from other surveys, showed that the German economy remained weak at the start of Q4. 25th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (August) The 0.3% increase in German industrial production comes as a relief, and a bit of a surprise, compared to the consensus forecast of 0.0% and our own expectation of a 1.0% fall, and given the poor... 8th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Vehicles still driving the downturn in Germany We estimate that the direct and indirect effects of the slump in vehicle production account for around half of the downturn in German industrial production since the beginning of last year. A... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
