Europe Commercial Property Update Alternative locations to limit German industrial rents A weak economic environment, and occupiers prepared to look outside traditional industrial locations which offer better value for money, will hold back the growth in prime industrial rents. But tight... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production data were stronger than expected and suggest that German GDP rose in Q1. But that is largely due to a sharp increase in construction, which is very unlikely to be... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update China rebound won’t get Germany back on track Weaker Chinese demand can explain only a fraction of the slowdown in German GDP growth over the past year: softer demand in other export markets and in the euro-zone are more important factors... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Mar.) March’s decline in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) adds to the evidence from other surveys that the economy has continued to lose momentum. And there is no sign that either the... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Prospects for government bonds remain brightest in US Given the prospects for monetary policy, we forecast that that the rally in government bonds will continue in the US; run out of steam in Germany and Japan; and reverse in the UK if a “no-deal” Brexit... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) The Ifo Business Climate Index for March was a little better than expected, but it does not suggest that the German economy is out of the woods. 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The 10-year Bund yield may be heading to zero Growing safe-haven flows in 2019 and the ECB re-starting its net asset purchases in 2020 may mean that the yields of “core” European government bonds (EGBs) fall further over the next two years. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany stuck in the slow lane A slow start to the year, combined with a deterioration in prospects for both export growth and household consumption, has prompted us to cut our forecast for economic growth in Germany to only 0.5%... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s decline in industrial production adds to the evidence that the economy made a weak start to 2019. And timelier indicators suggest that output is unlikely to increase strongly in the coming... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growing slowly, Italy and Germany risks The survey evidence continues to suggest that the euro-zone economy is growing, but that it is doing so only slowly, with the services sector doing all of the heavy lifting. The industrial sector... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor End of QT unlikely to affect bond valuations much In his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is deciding how and when to end its balance sheet rundown. Although some officials have indicated that it could finish... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Manufacturing recession, auto tariff threat The small rise in the composite PMI for the euro-zone, from 51.0 in January to 51.4 in February, came as a bit of a relief – especially as this was the first increase in six months. However, it leaves... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index confirms that Germany’s manufacturing recession has continued this year. But GDP data released earlier today and the Markit services PMI published... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s Composite PMI provides some reassurance that the euro-zone economy as a whole is still growing. But industrial output is falling, and with the global economy slowing and trade tensions... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly China and Germany, another Spanish election With Germany having narrowly avoided recession and Italy’s downturn dragging on, policymakers at the ECB will soon have to provide more clarity about which tools they are willing to use if the... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) With Germany avoiding recession only by the skin of its teeth, and Italy actually in recession, the euro-zone eked out GDP growth of only 0.2% in Q4. For now we still expect growth to recover a bit... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
