Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) The small fall in German industrial production in August left it a long way below its pre-crisis level, and lagging the industrial rebounds elsewhere in the euro-zone. We think the sector will resume... 7th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The very small increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index for September is further evidence that the recovery has run out of steam. Germany’s export-oriented manufacturing sector is still expanding... 24th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (July) German industry eked out a meagre increase in production in July, leaving output still well below its pre-crisis level. Production is likely to have increased again in August, but we now seem to be... 7th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP Q2 2020 (2nd Est.) & Ifo Survey (Aug.) The second estimate of Q2 German GDP confirms that all elements of domestic demand except government spending fell sharply. A big rebound in Q3 is already baked in the cake, but survey evidence... 25th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (June) Despite another substantial increase in June, driven by the auto sector, industrial output in Germany remained well below its pre-crisis level. The recovery should continue in the coming months, but... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q2 2020) The double-digit fall in quarterly GDP confirms that the coronavirus crisis delivered a huge blow to the Germany economy. Monthly and high frequency data show that activity bounced back since April... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The message from the Ifo Business Climate Index chimes with that from the PMIs published last week and suggests that the rebound in the German economy continued at a steady pace in July. 27th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s increase in German industrial production left it still well below pre-crisis levels. But with retail sales rising more rapidly, overall economic activity is picking up a little more quickly than... 7th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Germany’s 2009 jobs miracle be repeated? Euro-zone countries seeking to avoid a surge in unemployment have sought to replicate Germany’s short-time working scheme that served it well during the global financial crisis. Germany’s experience... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) The Ifo for June echoes the message from the PMIs published yesterday that the rebound in Germany has been a little faster, and the slump in GDP probably smaller, than we had anticipated. However, the... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German second wave risk looks low The increase in coronavirus cases in Germany is a reminder that the virus has not been eradicated and suggests that local restrictions may be re-imposed periodically in the coming months. But for now... 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) The slump in April was even bigger than the previous record set only a month ago. While the data should improve from May onwards, output probably won’t get back pre-coronavirus levels for at least two... 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone and Germany Unemployment (Apr./May) The remarkably small increase in unemployment in the euro-zone reflects the success of the government job subsidy schemes and an exodus from the labour force in Italy. We suspect that the unemployment... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the Franco-German fiscal proposal The €500bn EU joint fiscal package suggested by France and Germany would be a significant move towards fiscal union. However, the benefit to the countries hit hardest by the coronavirus crisis... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German Cash for Clunkers 2.0 won’t be a silver bullet Now that restrictions are being lifted, governments are inevitably facing calls to ensure that firms emerging from virus-imposed stasis have sufficient demand to stay open – not least in the German... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Courts try to stall the ECB as gov’ts ease off the brakes This week’s ruling from the German constitutional court won’t stop the ECB from ramping up its asset purchases this year, but it may be a sign of much bigger problems further down the line. Meanwhile... 7th May 2020 · 7 mins read
