Europe Data Response German GDP (2019) News that the German economy expanded by 0.6% last year, down from 1.5% in 2018, suggests that it narrowly avoided another contraction in Q4. Nonetheless, we think that GDP is unlikely to expand... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) While the increase in industrial production in November comes as a bit of a relief, it merely reversed the decline in the previous month and still means that output is likely to have fallen again in... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s Ifo Business Climate Index was a bit better than expected, but it still suggests that the German economy is struggling to grow. We expect GDP growth to remain very weak at the start of next... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharp drop in production in October was driven by a slump in auto production and suggests that, far from bottoming out, Germany’s industrial contraction may even be getting worse. The economy... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s Ifo Business Climate Index suggests that Q3’s small increase in German GDP was not the beginning of a recovery. We think that the economy will contract in the coming quarters. 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Still some upside for German prime industrial rents While the manufacturing downturn has not helped the industrial sector in Germany at a national level, growing e-commerce means that prime industrial rents will still muster some growth over the next... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sept.) The decline in industrial production in September confirms that German manufacturers are still firmly in a recession. We expect this to continue well into next year, causing the economy as a whole to... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Gloomy outlook for German retail rents Although occupier demand appears to be holding up in Germany, a combination of structural and cyclical factors has weighed on retail rents. And with meagre economic growth expected until at least the... 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) held steady at a very low level in October and, in line with the message from other surveys, showed that the German economy remained weak at the start of Q4. 25th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (August) The 0.3% increase in German industrial production comes as a relief, and a bit of a surprise, compared to the consensus forecast of 0.0% and our own expectation of a 1.0% fall, and given the poor... 8th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Vehicles still driving the downturn in Germany We estimate that the direct and indirect effects of the slump in vehicle production account for around half of the downturn in German industrial production since the beginning of last year. A... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The small increase in the headline Ifo Business Climate Index for September leaves it at a very low level and does not alter the fact that Germany seems to have entered recession in Q3. Moreover, the... 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wishful thinking about German fiscal policy While far from certain, there is a growing chance that the German government announces a fiscal stimulus in the coming weeks or months. However, even if it does, we think any boost to demand would be... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French industry looks resilient to German slowdown We expect French industrial production growth to slow in the coming year or so. But it should continue to outperform German industry thanks to its focus on less cyclical products such as food, energy... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany now more vulnerable to no-deal Brexit Germany could have taken the UK’s departure from the EU in its stride a couple of years ago but it will be hit quite badly if a no-deal Brexit occurs in two months’ time. 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q2), E-Z Industrial Production (June) The decline in German GDP in Q2 and sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production in June provide further evidence of the severity of the slowdown in Europe. What’s more, a deteriorating global... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
