Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) Data published today show that German industrial production was flat in December and we suspect that output will have fallen slightly since then as virus containment measures continued to take a toll... 8th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Explaining Germany’s January inflation surprise Germany’s state-level data show that the sharp increase in inflation in January resulted from higher energy prices and delays to winter sales, as well as changes to the weights of the HICP basket... 2nd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2020) Confirmation that Germany avoided a contraction in GDP in Q4 last year is of little comfort given that its economy will almost certainly shrink in Q1 this year. A strong recovery is still likely... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Jan.) The jump in German HICP inflation appears to reflect methodological changes as well as the VAT hike. If a similar approach is adopted throughout the euro-zone, which at face value seems likely... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) The fall in the headline Ifo Business Climate Indicator for January is consistent with our view that, having proved resilient in Q4, German’s economy will contract in Q1. Tougher Covid-19 restrictions... 25th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) German manufacturers withstood the restrictions imposed in November much better than many feared, meaning the economy almost certainly expanded in Q4 last year. However, we suspect that it will... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index for December supports our view that Germany will avoid a contraction in Q4. But the new tightening in coronavirus restrictions, which came into effect... 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) Germany’s manufacturing output rose again in October and the signs are that it held up well after the lockdown-lite came into force in November. It now looks as if Germany will be the only major euro... 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov) & Q3 GDP (Second estimate) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index for November confirms that the German economy is losing momentum but also that it is holding up much better than many other countries. We suspect... 24th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Second wave confirms downturn for German offices German occupier demand has slumped in the pandemic, though rents have generally held steady so far this year. But with demand likely to remain weak and an overhang of supply in some markets, declines... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) Germany’s manufacturing sector should be able to continue its recovery in the fourth quarter, even as much of the hospitality sector is closed down again. 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the new Franco-German lockdowns We think the one-month national “lockdowns” will result in GDP contracting by around 2.5% q/q in France in Q4 while in Germany GDP will be flat at best. There is obviously a big risk that the... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index provides more evidence that Germany’s recovery is running out of steam. We expect GDP to increase slightly in the fourth quarter thanks to the... 26th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will German ecommerce accelerate post-COVID-19? Recent data provide an indication that the virus outbreak will likely result in a faster online transition in Germany. The impact on instore demand will add to the pressures already facing retailers... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt the 10-year Bund yield will fall further We are sticking to our forecast that the 10-year German government bond (Bund) yield will end this year at around -0.50%, even though it has recently fallen through this level following a renewed... 22nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) The small fall in German industrial production in August left it a long way below its pre-crisis level, and lagging the industrial rebounds elsewhere in the euro-zone. We think the sector will resume... 7th October 2020 · 2 mins read
