Europe Economics Weekly Business surveys point to continued recovery The business surveys for August published this week provided some reassurance that the euro-zone economy is continuing to grow at a decent pace. And the decline in the forward-looking components is... 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (August) The second successive decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in August provides further evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing some momentum, partly due to supply chain difficulties in the... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s recovery taking longer than expected Data published today show that the weakness in German GDP in Q2 was due to the low level of household spending. Consumption should increase sharply in Q3. But with manufacturers struggling, the... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election result in the balance After a sharp rise in support for the SDP the election result looks set to be very close. Whatever the outcome, economic policy will not change very much, but fiscal policy may be slightly less... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s PMIs suggest that growth slowed only slightly despite persistent supply problems and activity approaching more normal levels. They also imply that price pressures are no longer intensifying... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Delta variant not yet putting brakes on recovery The timeliest data show little evidence that concerns about the Delta variant are causing economic activity to fall outright. But with output getting closer to normal levels and the virus situation... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Tentative signs of a turning point for property All-property capital values rose for the third consecutive quarter in Q2, leaving them less than 1% below their pre-virus level. The improvement was driven by a decline in all-property yields, though... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German election getting complicated The latest opinion polls suggest that Germany’s election, on 26 th September, will be a close-run affair, with many coalition governments still potentially feasible. Whether or not the Greens are part... 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Industry holds back otherwise strong recovery This week provided yet more good news on the euro-zone, with case numbers falling consistently in some countries, vaccine rollouts on track, and both the survey and official data suggesting that the... 6th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics German Industrial Production (June) The further decline in German industrial output in June, to 6.8% below its pre-pandemic level, underlines that the problems in the auto sector will hold back an otherwise strong economic recovery. It... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to nearly 4% on the CPI measure was partly due to last year’s VAT cut and partly due to rising energy and food inflation, all of which should prove short-lived... 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property A primer on European residential property Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of... 27th July 2021 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics German Ifo Survey (July) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in July suggests that the rebound in Germany may be losing some momentum. But Germany will still post very rapid GDP growth in both Q2 and Q3 and... 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Strong rebound and temporary rise in inflation The euro-zone is on the way to an almost full recovery. We expect Germany to regain its pre-pandemic level of activity later this year and the tourist-dependent southern countries to do so next year... 16th July 2021 · 33 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (June) The German football team only narrowly scraped through the group stage of the Euros yesterday, but the news about the economy continues to be much more emphatic. 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect yields to rise less in Germany than in the US The yields of 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds have moved in lockstep since the latest Fed meeting, but we doubt that this will continue. While we expect the Treasury yield to rise sharply... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
