Europe Economics Weekly Drop back in bond yields takes pressure off ECB The fall in sovereign bond yields over the past week may make things a little easier for the ECB Governing Council when it meets on 10 th June. We think it is likely to replace its commitment to make... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) The Ifo Business Climate Index for May suggests that an economic recovery is now underway in Germany, as the lifting of restrictions outweighs any adverse effects from supply bottlenecks in the... 25th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update US pay pressures are the exception, not the norm While pay growth has risen across the developed economies, in several cases this reflects reduced hours or the fact that a disproportionate number of low paid workers have lost their jobs. There are... 20th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We doubt the 10Y UST/Bund spread will keep shrinking Although the spread between 10-year sovereign bond yields in the US and Germany has narrowed so far during the second quarter of this year, we doubt this will continue for much longer. 19th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Mar.) The small increase in German industrial production in March shows that factories are still not back to normal, despite the strength of demand. This seems to be primarily due to supply problems... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) is consistent with the economy treading water at the beginning of Q2 as optimism has been dented by supply bottlenecks and the Covid-19 restrictions. 26th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rents in German industrial markets to be kept in check The expected rebound in economic activity in H2, continued growth in online sales and constrained supply outlook should allow prime industrial rents in the main four markets to return to growth by the... 20th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Government troubles raise stakes in German election The broad consensus among Germany’s major parties means that September’s election will not lead to big macroeconomic policy changes. But with the Greens and/or SDP set to gain influence, fiscal policy... 1st April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Mar.) The increase in German HICP inflation to 2.0% in March is not the end of the upward trend. We expect rising energy prices and some further unwinding of the factors which suppressed it last year to... 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) The strong Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) for March provided further evidence that, the auto sector aside, Germany’s manufacturers are flourishing. But the rest of the economy is faring less well... 26th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German inflation: below but close to 4%? We are raising our forecast for HICP inflation in Germany and expect it to peak at over 3.5% this year. But we doubt that this will prompt any policy tightening by the ECB because aggregate euro-zone... 23rd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February suggests that the German economy is weathering the lockdown better than anticipated. It also points to some upside risk to our forecast that... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) Data published today show that German industrial production was flat in December and we suspect that output will have fallen slightly since then as virus containment measures continued to take a toll... 8th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Explaining Germany’s January inflation surprise Germany’s state-level data show that the sharp increase in inflation in January resulted from higher energy prices and delays to winter sales, as well as changes to the weights of the HICP basket... 2nd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2020) Confirmation that Germany avoided a contraction in GDP in Q4 last year is of little comfort given that its economy will almost certainly shrink in Q1 this year. A strong recovery is still likely... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Jan.) The jump in German HICP inflation appears to reflect methodological changes as well as the VAT hike. If a similar approach is adopted throughout the euro-zone, which at face value seems likely... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
