Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone continues sluggish recovery Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone recovery is fizzling out and leave us comfortable with our below-consensus forecasts for economic growth. Next week, we expect to learn that euro... 26th July 2024 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ageing population to weigh on EZ labour market Net immigration to euro-zone countries will probably be higher than the UN assumes in its latest population forecasts. But we still think the working age population will decline over the coming decade... 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The large fall in the German Ifo BCI in July, which follows a similar drop in the Composite PMI published yesterday, adds to the impression that the rebound in Germany’s economy earlier in the year... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German debt brake to cause more self-inflicted pain Fiscal policy has become almost as fraught in Germany as it is in France and Italy, but rather than from a desire to run very loose fiscal policy, Germany’s woes stem from its strict “debt brake”... 23rd July 2024 · 21 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss-German bond yield spread likely to narrow slightly We anticipate the spread between 10-year Swiss and German government bond yields, which has widened significantly since 2022, will narrow only slightly over the next couple of years. 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German budget deal only moderately encouraging The budget deal struck by the governing coalition in Germany reduces the risk of the country being forced into early elections. But it does little to address Germany’s structural problems, in part... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May) The slump in German industrial production in May fully reverses the increase in output at the start of the year and suggests that German industry is not out of the woods yet. We expect output to... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany no longer immune to budget trouble Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While... 1st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Flash HICP (June) Inflation figures for Germany and other major euro-zone economies suggest that, after rising in May, euro-zone headline and core inflation edged back down in June. But services inflation remained high... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Munich office rent boom has further to go, Berlin trails We are generally pessimistic about the rental outlook in Germany, however, this conceals large variance across cities – most notably for offices between leader Munich and laggard Berlin. Munich prime... 25th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (June 2024) June’s decline in the Ifo business climate indicator (BCI) to a very low level highlights that even after Germany’s economy grew in Q1, it is far from back to full health. 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising distress points to further value falls in Germany While German property yields stabilised in Q1, further indications of rising distress give us confidence in our view that property values there have not yet reached the bottom. 29th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State CPI (May) CPI inflation data published by the major German states this morning suggest that both German and euro-zone HICP inflation may come in a bit lower than expected and that though core inflation rose... 29th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update An early look at Germany’s next general election The next German federal election will be crucial in determining how Germany will respond to its structural economic challenges. This Update answers some key questions on what to expect from the... 20th May 2024 · 7 mins read
