Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2025 Against a backdrop of lower interest rates and weak economic growth in much of Europe, we think the recovery in property values will continue at a gradual pace in 2025. Our forecast for euro-zone... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Flash HICP (December) Data for Germany and Spain suggest euro-zone inflation was higher than expected in December. However, we still think that inflation is likely to undershoot the ECB’s forecasts later this year causing... 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update A primer on the Alternative für Deutschland The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has attracted attention recently because of its strong opinion poll ratings and endorsement by Elon Musk. The party has no plausible route to power after February... 3rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from next week’s data Next week will be a busy one for data releases in Europe. We think that the data will underline that core price pressures are continuing to ease gradually in the euro-zone, while economic growth... 3rd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No economic bazooka in German election manifestos The election manifestos of Germany’s main political parties, which were published this week, confirm that a radical change in economic policy and/or a big fiscal stimulus after the upcoming general... 20th December 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (December 2024) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) remained deep in recessionary territory in December. While the survey has overstated the weakness in the economy this year, the outlook is quite poor and we think... 17th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds to euro-zone stock markets to blow harder While equities in Germany have managed to ride out weak growth and political uncertainty this year, those in France have not. We suspect that they will all fare poorly next year, as those adverse... 16th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Low growth, low inflation, low rates We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening... 16th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish; French politics; defence spending to rise? Investors appear to have interpreted Christine Lagarde’s comments yesterday, and the subsequent leaks to the media, as more hawkish than expected. But we remain convinced that the ECB will cut... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry 1733929200 What’s the outlook for struggling German auto manufacturers? How big a threat do Donald Trump and Chinese imports present?
Europe Economics Weekly Growth, inflation and fiscal policy Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of... 29th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Don’t expect a big fiscal stimulus in Germany It now seems increasingly likely that, as we had been expecting, Germany will loosen its strict fiscal rule after the upcoming general election. However, hopes of a big fiscal stimulus are likely to... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry One of the many problems that the next German government will have to contend with is the struggling car sector. Unfortunately, the sector’s challenges are only likely to intensify given the prospect... 27th November 2024 · 29 mins read
