Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (March) After a further huge jump in March, German inflation is likely to average at least 7% this year, and there are plenty of upside risks, not least the threat of power shortages. With price pressures... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (March) March’s Ifo business survey provides further evidence that Germany is heading for a sharp slowdown as the war in Ukraine and sky-high energy prices cause manufacturing output to contract. However, we... 25th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Bonds & Equities War-induced rally in DM bonds may not be sustained While the war in Ukraine may well push down the yields of long-dated developed market government bonds further in the near term, we think that a sustained rally in bonds is unlikely unless the war... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (February) The increase in inflation in Germany and much bigger jumps elsewhere mean that euro-zone inflation for February will come in well above expectations. However, the ECB has bigger concerns at present... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (February) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in February strengthens our view that conditions in the German economy continued to improve during Q1. While the latest escalation of Russia-Ukraine... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update The outlook for German and Swiss Government bonds We think that the gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds will re-emerge over the next couple of years as the ECB tightens policy more quickly than the SNB. In view of the... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Euro-zone all-property returns total almost 9% in 2021 Euro-zone commercial property markets ended 2021 on a stronger note. Prime rental growth picked up in the office and industrial sectors, while retail rents held steady for the third consecutive... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (January) The upside surprise to Germany’s headline inflation rate in January was mostly due to higher energy prices rather than rising underlying inflation. Nonetheless, core inflation of 2.9% is well above... 11th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (December) The small decline in production in December was not quite as bad as it looks because it was largely due to a fall in construction activity, but 2021 was still a terrible year for German manufacturers... 7th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (January) The smaller-than-anticipated fall in Germany’s inflation rate, and increase in core inflation in Portugal and Spain, suggest that underlying price pressures are continuing to build. Euro-zone... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong labour market not yet feeding through to wages Surveys published this week suggested that the euro-zone economy has had a weak start to 2022 amid surging cases, but this is likely to be short-lived. Meanwhile, although the labour market appears to... 28th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2021) The decline in economic activity at the end of last year left GDP well below its pre-pandemic level and much weaker than in other major advanced economies. Activity seems to have stabilised in January... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (January) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in January provides more evidence that, after contracting in late 2021, conditions have stabilised at the start of the year. With disruption from... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic... 21st January 2022 · 30 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (December) Final inflation data for December showed that the decline in Germany’s HICP inflation rate to 5.7% was due to energy and services. We expect both headline and core inflation to fall this year, but... 19th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update ECB rate hike unlikely to move the needle for property While we now expect the ECB to start its tightening cycle earlier, we don’t think the change is significant enough to prevent further property yield compression over 2022-23, albeit at a slower pace... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
