Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (September) The 1.1% m/m fall in industrial production in September was worse than the consensus and our own expectation. Business surveys suggest that shortages of components, particularly in the auto sector... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Upward revision to our Germany inflation forecast The recent surge in energy prices and worsening supply chain disruption will keep Germany’s inflation rate higher next year than we had anticipated. However, we still think inflation will fall from a... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus How pandemic changes will affect European cities Europeans are returning to cities, though the return to offices has been much slower and this has had negative effects on city retail. Looking ahead, weaker demand for office and retail will weigh on... 2nd November 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Investors unconvinced by ECB’s dovish message The ECB’s “soul searching” over inflation has made investors less, not more, convinced that the Bank will buck the hawkish trend elsewhere and keep policy rates on hold. We think investors have got... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment to peak later next year The Q3 investment data indicate that activity could be slightly stronger this year than we had expected. However, with the economic recovery topping out and structural headwinds limiting investment in... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (October) The fourth successive monthly fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index provides more evidence – if it were needed – that supply side disruption is causing the German economy to slow sharply and suggests... 25th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A fresh start for the Bundesbank? Other than Mr Weidmann’s abrupt departure from the Bundesbank, the news this week has been dominated by the twin problems of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. There is more bad news to... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Near-term upgrades to German office rental growth Prime office rental growth in Germany is on track to be stronger than forecast in the near term. However, we think rental growth will slow in the coming years as the supply of modern space is expected... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Running into troubled waters Supply chain problems will slow the recovery and keep inflation above target until around the middle of next year. Beyond that, however, the economy should get back on track. After regaining its pre... 19th October 2021 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy, semi-conductors and Italy’s Green Pass The continued high level of energy prices strengthens our view that euro-zone inflation will keep rising in the coming months. But by lowering consumers’ purchasing power, it could actually reduce... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Wider market confirms recovery in prime data The latest MSCI data show that the wider market has moved roughly in line with our prime data since the onset of the pandemic and provide support to our outlook for property values. 14th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the sell-off in DM bonds will resume While the yields of long-dated government bonds in the euro-zone, UK and US have dropped back a bit in recent days, we think they will rise between now and the end of 2023. We expect increases in... 14th October 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Assessing the outlook for US equity valuations We forecast that the valuation of the US stock market will deflate a bit further over the next couple of years, though we are not expecting a sharp decline. 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Headwinds strengthening Supply shortages and rising energy prices are becoming stronger headwinds to the euro-zone recovery. The latest data from Germany showed sharp falls in industrial orders and production, with... 7th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (August) The whopping 4.7% m/m fall in German manufacturing production in August left industrial output 9.0% below its February 2020 level. With conditions having worsened since then, Germany’s manufacturing... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update No major policy shift likely following German election With the CDU/CSU and SDP having won very similar shares of the vote, the composition of Germany’s next government still hangs in the balance. An SDP-led coalition would probably pursue a slightly less... 27th September 2021 · 3 mins read
