Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (February) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in February strengthens our view that conditions in the German economy continued to improve during Q1. While the latest escalation of Russia-Ukraine... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update The outlook for German and Swiss Government bonds We think that the gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds will re-emerge over the next couple of years as the ECB tightens policy more quickly than the SNB. In view of the... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Euro-zone all-property returns total almost 9% in 2021 Euro-zone commercial property markets ended 2021 on a stronger note. Prime rental growth picked up in the office and industrial sectors, while retail rents held steady for the third consecutive... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (January) The upside surprise to Germany’s headline inflation rate in January was mostly due to higher energy prices rather than rising underlying inflation. Nonetheless, core inflation of 2.9% is well above... 11th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (December) The small decline in production in December was not quite as bad as it looks because it was largely due to a fall in construction activity, but 2021 was still a terrible year for German manufacturers... 7th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (January) The smaller-than-anticipated fall in Germany’s inflation rate, and increase in core inflation in Portugal and Spain, suggest that underlying price pressures are continuing to build. Euro-zone... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong labour market not yet feeding through to wages Surveys published this week suggested that the euro-zone economy has had a weak start to 2022 amid surging cases, but this is likely to be short-lived. Meanwhile, although the labour market appears to... 28th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2021) The decline in economic activity at the end of last year left GDP well below its pre-pandemic level and much weaker than in other major advanced economies. Activity seems to have stabilised in January... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (January) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in January provides more evidence that, after contracting in late 2021, conditions have stabilised at the start of the year. With disruption from... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic... 21st January 2022 · 30 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (December) Final inflation data for December showed that the decline in Germany’s HICP inflation rate to 5.7% was due to energy and services. We expect both headline and core inflation to fall this year, but... 19th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update ECB rate hike unlikely to move the needle for property While we now expect the ECB to start its tightening cycle earlier, we don’t think the change is significant enough to prevent further property yield compression over 2022-23, albeit at a slower pace... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2021) Provisional data showing that Germany’s GDP increased by 2.7% last year and news that it shrank in Q4 underlines that its recovery has lagged many of its peers, including the US, France and the UK. We... 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (November) The unexpected decline in German industrial production in November increases the chance that GDP fell in the last quarter of 2021. And with the Omicron variant likely to hit Germany hard in the coming... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (December) Germany’s HICP inflation rate fell to 5.7% in December and is now past its peak, but the national CPI measure, which is arguably a better indicator at the moment, rose slightly. Looking ahead, we... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB slightly more hawkish than expected Following a the ECB’s slightly hawkish policy shift this week, we have penciled in a rate hike for 2024 and think the chance of a 2023 lift-off has risen. The big picture, though, is that the ECB will... 17th December 2021 · 11 mins read
