Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) Data released today show that the euro-zone economy recovered to within 0.5% of its pre-pandemic level in Q3. But with Covid cases rising, governments tightening restrictions, and supply problems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (October) The rebound in auto output in October means that aggregate industrial production may increase in the fourth quarter. But with the services sector being hit hard by new Covid restrictions, it seems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Omicron adds to downside risks High frequency data show that travel to retail and recreation destinations, restaurant bookings and flights have all declined in the past few weeks as coronavirus restrictions have been tightened in... 6th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s line on inflation contrasts with the Fed’s In contrast to those at the US Fed, ECB policymakers are not ready to retire their argument that the current bout of high inflation is temporary. This reflects the significant difference in... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct) & Final PMIs (Nov.) Euro-zone retail sales have levelled off since June, but rising Covid cases and the return of restrictions are likely to weigh on sales and other components of consumption in the coming months. 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Oct.) While labour market conditions continued to improve in October, the recent deterioration of the Covid situation and increased uncertainty due to the Omicron variant are likely to mean the recovery... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Macron on course to defeat far-right challengers The confirmation earlier today that far-right pundit Eric Zemmour will stand in France’s presidential election next spring comes as no surprise given his rise in the polls. But French President... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.) November’s inflation data were yet another surprise on the upside. The Omicron variant has increased the level of uncertainty even further but for now we suspect that it will have a fairly small... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Omicron: implications for the euro-zone It is still very early days in assessing the effects of the latest Covid variant, but we suspect that Omicron has the capacity to cause a new decline in economic activity in the coming months but that... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Nov.) The increase in German inflation to 6% on the HICP measure was partly due to statistical quirks which should be reversed next month. But even the national CPI measure of inflation rose to 5.2%... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations worsen, but office and retail still fair value Higher alternative asset yields and falls in office and industrial yields contributed to a further deterioration in property valuations in Q3. The decline in government bond yields since then, which... 29th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (November) Despite the slight deterioration on the month, November’s EC business and consumer survey showed that economic sentiment in the euro-zone was high before the recent news about the Omicron variant. It... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising Covid fears will keep policymakers dovish It is too early to judge how serious the B.1.1.529 variant will turn out to be, but it certainly reinforces the case for central banks to be ultra-cautious when withdrawing their policy support. We... 26th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update PEPP not guaranteed to end in March The account of October’s ECB meeting suggests that it is by no means guaranteed that net PEPP purchases will end in March. And even if they do, the Bank may well leave open the possibility of re... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (November) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) for November was in line with expectations and suggests that the German economy was struggling even before the recent tightening of Covid restrictions... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q4 outlook darkens as tighter restrictions loom Germany’s worsening Covid situation means much of the country could be subject to much tighter restrictions soon, potentially knocking around 0.25%-pts off euro-zone Q4 GDP. Even if other countries... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
