Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Nov.) Unemployment in the euro-zone fell again in November, and timelier data suggest that there have been further improvements since then. While there has been less of a hit to the workforce in the euro... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What’s in store for retail this year? An expected improvement in spending is encouraging for prime high streets this year. Nevertheless, with a growing share of retail turnover made online and city-based retail more vulnerable to remote... 10th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone to keep calm and Omicr-on in 2022 While the new year has started much like 2021 did, with a surge in Covid cases and consumers becoming more cautious, the response of governments has been markedly different. In general, blanket... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator decreased markedly in December, as the surge in Covid cases and tightening of restrictions took their toll on activity in the services sector. The survey also... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Dec.) After reaching 5.0% in December, headline euro-zone inflation should fall this year as the energy component plummets. But we think that core inflation will remain around 2%. 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (November) The unexpected decline in German industrial production in November increases the chance that GDP fell in the last quarter of 2021. And with the Omicron variant likely to hit Germany hard in the coming... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Omicron won’t cause euro-zone to contract in Q1 Omicron will reduce economic activity in the coming weeks due to tighter restrictions, consumer caution and absenteeism. Our best guess is that economic activity in the euro-zone will decline in... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (December) Germany’s HICP inflation rate fell to 5.7% in December and is now past its peak, but the national CPI measure, which is arguably a better indicator at the moment, rose slightly. Looking ahead, we... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for European property in 2022 We don’t expect slower near-term economic growth to derail the property upturn in 2022. Rather, we think that continued falls in property yields and a rebound in all-property rents will support... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key calls for the euro-zone in 2022 We think euro-zone GDP growth will be lower than most anticipate this year, at around 3.5%, while inflation will come down towards 2% by year-end allowing the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged and... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which predictions did we get right in 2021? While office performance surprised on the upside and we could have been much bolder in our forecast for industrial yield falls, our other forecasts for 2021 proved to be broadly correct. 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The final Composite PMIs for December confirm that the euro-zone economy ended 2021 on a weak note, consistent with our view that GDP rose by only about 0.2% q/q in Q4. They also suggest that price... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surge in gas prices will keep inflation higher This year’s surge in natural gas prices means that HICP inflation may be up to one percentage point higher next year than it would otherwise have been. However, aggregate energy inflation is still... 22nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update European natural gas prices surging on supply fears We always expected European natural gas prices to remain high over the winter because of low stocks, but heightened uncertainty about supply from Russia has caused prices to skyrocket again. Assuming... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Dec.) December’s decline in consumer confidence adds to the list of deteriorating consumer indicators. We expect household spending to contribute to a marked slowdown in GDP growth in Q4 to just 0.2% q/q. 21st December 2021 · 2 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains While we have raised our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for the S&P 500, we still expect gains in the index to be smaller over the next two years than they have been in 2021 and on average over the past... 21st December 2021 · 8 mins read
