Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on Italy’s presidential vote Italy’s presidential election, which will begin next week, threatens to reignite political uncertainty that has been quiescent since Mario Draghi became prime minister last year. While we agree that... 21st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Jan.) January’s broadly unchanged reading for consumer confidence suggests that household spending might be holding up fairly well, despite a surge in Covid cases. We expect consumption to recover quickly... 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic... 21st January 2022 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy inflation will fall, but core will stay around 2% The key event this week (for us at least) is the publication of our forthcoming European Economic Outlook setting out forecasts for 2022 and 2023. In brief, we think the euro-zone will come through... 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB increasingly split over inflation outlook 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Dec.) Euro-zone inflation is likely to have peaked at 5% in December, with energy inflation set to fall sharply this year. But we think that core inflation will settle at around 2%, prompting the ECB to... 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (December) Final inflation data for December showed that the decline in Germany’s HICP inflation rate to 5.7% was due to energy and services. We expect both headline and core inflation to fall this year, but... 19th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update ECB rate hike unlikely to move the needle for property While we now expect the ECB to start its tightening cycle earlier, we don’t think the change is significant enough to prevent further property yield compression over 2022-23, albeit at a slower pace... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Gradual flexible office recovery underway Having been hit hard in 2020, improving economic conditions supported flexible office take-up in 2021, albeit caution and consolidation limited the net increase in space. While we expect take-up to... 17th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Estimating the carbon transition risk to property values Real estate potentially has a significant role to play in helping achieve ambitious climate targets. We have estimated the size of the risks in the transition to net zero for the commercial property... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone GDP barely grew in Q4, inflation risks rise Data released this week suggest that our assumption that euro-zone GDP rose by 0.2% in Q4 could be too optimistic, but we still think that the economy will grow in Q1. Meanwhile, rapid house price... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2021) Provisional data showing that Germany’s GDP increased by 2.7% last year and news that it shrank in Q4 underlines that its recovery has lagged many of its peers, including the US, France and the UK. We... 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to raise rates to zero in 2023 With pandemic-related inflationary pressures proving a bit more intense and persistent than we had anticipated, and policymakers sounding more willing to tighten policy, we think the ECB is most... 12th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 2.3% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production followed a big downward revision to October’s figures and was largely due to huge volatility in Ireland. The big picture is that... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rate hikes might not spell the end of ECB QE We doubt that “fiscal dominance” – worries about the impact of higher interest rates on debt sustainability – would stop the ECB from raising interest rates. But it might encourage the Bank to... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation to remain above target in 2022 Euro-zone inflation reached 5.0% in December, which is likely to be the peak. Unless oil and gas prices surge again in 2022, which seems unlikely, energy inflation will plummet – we forecast the... 11th January 2022 · 12 mins read
