Europe Economics Update Domestic price pressures easing but from high level The latest euro-zone inflation data, published this morning, will dampen policymakers’ concerns about the strength of domestic price pressures. But with underlying inflation still too high for comfort... 17th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The hawks are ruling 2024 so far… but not really A hawkish mood has prevailed in markets this year, and comments from the Fed’s Waller today seemed to add fuel to that fire, at least initially. But given how aggressively rate cuts were priced in... 16th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rental slowdown set to continue in 2024 The resilience of euro-zone rental growth last year surprised us. But our analysis indicates that better-than-expected economic activity explained much of that strength and as recession looms in 2024... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: ECB, BoE, Fed meetings – Reading the tea leaves for rate cut hints 1706799600 We don’t expect the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank or Bank of England to cut rates in their first meetings of 2024, but they may drop hints about when monetary easing could start.
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (2023) Preliminary data published today show that German GDP contracted in Q4 and we expect it to continue to struggle this year. 15th January 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Household consumption will remain weak this year Household consumption in the euro-zone looks set for another bad year. We think that it will be broadly flat in the first half of 2024, keeping overall GDP growth close to zero for the next few... 12th January 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers start the year talking about rate cuts In their first comments of 2024, ECB policymakers acknowledged that the next interest rate move is likely to be a cut, though they emphasised the need for greater certainty on inflation before going... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will... 10th January 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German industry still has further to fall Industrial output in Germany is likely to follow November’s decline with further falls this year. While the recent fall in natural gas prices could help to stem the bleeding in the near term, energy... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We see 2024 ending much better than it started for asset markets Although bonds and equities have started the year on the back foot, which may continue in the near term, we think they’ll fare better over the year as a whole. We project especially large gains for... 8th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.) & EC Survey (Dec.) The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have contracted than expanded in the fourth quarter of last year. They also suggest that while... 8th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak end to last year does not bode well Data released this week showed that core price pressures in the euro-zone continued to fade at the end of last year as activity remained subdued. This supports our view that a weak economy this year... 5th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (December) December’s jump in headline inflation in the euro-zone was widely anticipated and entirely due to a base-effects driven increase in energy inflation, so it won’t alter ECB policymakers’ views on the... 5th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2024 Falling interest rates will herald the end of the commercial property downturn in 2024. However, owing to price declines in H1 we still think values will end the year lower. Our forecast for... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2023 key calls In another year of upheaval for commercial property in Europe, our forecasts were broadly correct in terms of direction, but underestimated the severity of the downturn. Some, though not all, of this... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read