Europe Commercial Property Update German office market at a turning point? German prime office yields jumped in Q2 amid early signs that the weakening economic outlook is weighing heavily on the office market. And while there were strong rental gains in the first half of the... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for recession, ECB using PEPP flexibility The activity data published this week add to the evidence that the economy is heading for recession. Meanwhile, the ECB published data showing the degree of flexibility that it has applied to its PEPP... 5th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jun.) The small increase in German industrial production in June was not enough to reverse declines earlier in the year and left output well below pre-pandemic levels. Things are going to get more difficult... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing sharply amid high inflation Euro-zone GDP increased by more than we had expected in Q2 as reopening effects boosted the services sector, particularly in the southern countries. But things have already taken a turn for the worse... 4th August 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final PMIs (Jul.) The sharp fall in euro-zone retail sales in June means sales contracted in Q2 as a whole. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures continuing to intensify and demand softening, we think... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Better transparency provides little respite for yields While encouraging for the property risk premium, better transparency across Europe is unlikely to provide much support for property yields given the deterioration in the economic and interest rate... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (June) In June, the number of unemployed people rose in the euro-zone for the first time in 14 months. Nevertheless, we expect the labour market to remain tight even as the economy heads into recession... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slowdown in European investment to continue After a strong start to the year, European investment weakened in Q2. And we expect only lacklustre activity over the second half of the year as rises in the cost of debt, tightening credit conditions... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gazprom turns the screws Gazprom’s announcement this week that it is reducing the supply of gas through Nord Stream 1 to only a fifth of its normal capacity has pushed European natural gas prices up once again and threatens... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2022) The chunky increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was due to the re-opening of the services sector which has masked a deterioration in most other parts of the economy. We expect a triple whammy of high... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (July) With headline and core inflation rising more than expected yet again, the case for the ECB to pursue further aggressive tightening of interest rates is unassailable. A 50bp hike in September now looks... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to 8.5% in July was higher than most anticipated and suggests that euro-zone inflation will also come in above expectations tomorrow. This will support what we assume... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weakness in Spanish household spending to persist Household consumption has been weaker in Spain than in other big euro-zone economies, reflecting the slow rebound in tourism, more limited fiscal support and higher inflation. The latter is set to... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jul.) The bigger-than-expected decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in July adds to a growing list of indicators pointing to activity slowing markedly in July. With the region’s gas supply now... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (June) Bank lending growth accelerated further in June, but lenders expect the demand for loans to slow sharply in the coming months, adding to the reasons to expect the economy to fall into recession... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy suffer a repeat of 2018? Italy’s next government is unlikely to bring the country’s future in the euro-zone into doubt, in a repeat of the turmoil that we saw after the 2018 election. But it will probably run looser fiscal... 26th July 2022 · 3 mins read
