Europe Commercial Property Update Worst of online drag is over, especially in the south Recent estimates add to the evidence that online retail shares are growing more slowly across Europe. There has also been little sign of convergence in online shares, supporting our long-held view... 3rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State Elections The big rise in populist parties in elections in two East German states at the weekend doesn’t threaten the survival of the governing coalition but it points to some political challenges in Germany... 2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Budget gridlock will keep Belgium’s deficit high Belgium's political crisis and high budget deficit have largely gone unnoticed in past couple of months while all eyes have been on France. This Update answers some key questions about its political... 30th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Taking stock of the euro-zone’s Q3 performance so far At this stage, we have no significant hard data with which to assess economic activity in the euro-zone in Q3. But the signs from the business surveys are not promising. Meanwhile, the minutes of the... 30th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (August 2024) We doubt that August’s unexpected increase in services inflation will stop the ECB from cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September. 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany and Spain HICP (Aug.) Inflation figures for Germany and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation may have fallen to the ECB’s 2% target in August and that the core rate edged down. That paves the way for a September... 29th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime office rent gains to beat consensus expectations Prime office rents look set to rise by more than we had previously expected over the next few years given still low CBD vacancy, preferences for prime space and cuts to the supply pipeline in 2025-26... 29th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Progress towards Capital Markets Union will be slow Capital Markets Union (CMU) is regarded by many European policymakers as one of the key reforms needed to close the gap between EU and US productivity. But a full CMU is a long way off, and in any... 28th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No need to cry over subsidised milk This week’s EU-China spat over EV and dairy duties was interpreted by the EU’s Chief diplomat as a sign that a trade war may be “unavoidable”, but we think it is actually evidence that both sides will... 23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU semiconductor industry will continue to lag behind Although the EU is making progress in expanding its semiconductor production capacity, including through a new plant in Dresden, it is still a long way behind the US and Asia and is unlikely to catch... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2024) A stabilisation of property yields and solid rent growth mean that euro-zone all-property values increased in Q2 for the first time in two years. However, market sentiment remains very weak and... 23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Big fall in negotiated wage inflation The scale of the fall in negotiated wage inflation in Q2 was largely due to one-off payments made in Germany in March but not repeated in Q2. However, the underlying trend in wage inflation is clearly... 22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August 2024) The rise in the flash PMIs for August is not as good as it looks as it was largely due to a boost from the Paris Olympics and the survey still points to GDP growth slowing in Q3. With price pressures... 22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services inflation will start falling again soon There are good reasons to expect services inflation to start falling again towards the end of this year and in 2025. But as long as wage growth remains high, services inflation will stay strong too. 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024) Commercial property valuations worsened slightly in Q2 across all sectors as bond yields rose while property yields held steady. However, the decline in government bond yields so far in Q3 means... 20th August 2024 · 0 mins read
