Europe Economics Update ECB account shows hawks in ascendancy The >10,000 word account of the ECB’s July meeting confirms that a large majority of policymakers favoured a 50bps rate hike and are focused more on their mandate to contain inflation than on trying... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Could cheap Norwegian gas fix Europe’s energy crisis? One left-field option for alleviating Europe’s gas crisis that has been doing the rounds is the potential for asking Norway to discount the price of its gas exports. This Update looks at eight key... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deeper recession, inflation to hit 10% The continued surge in European gas prices, and likelihood that they will remain extremely high, means that the euro-zone will probably suffer a deeper recession than we had previously anticipated. It... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas shock bigger than 1970s oil shocks For most major euro-zone countries the terms of trade shock from higher gas prices this year will be bigger than both the 1974 and 1979 oil shocks. How this plays out in the coming months depends on... 23rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August) August’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy is now contracting. While global price pressures have become less intense in the past few months as supply chain problems have eased, soaring... 23rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hands are tied GDP data published this week confirmed that the euro-zone economy grew at a decent pace in the first half of the year. But this is unlikely to last, and next week we expect the first business surveys... 19th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Shrinking construction sector adds to recession risk Materials and labour shortages are weighing on construction activity and, although those headwinds may ease over the rest of the year, tighter monetary policy is likely to cause activity to fall. The... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (July) Final inflation data for July underline that price pressures remain strong and broad-based. With wholesale natural gas and electricity prices having surged again in the weeks since July, retail gas... 18th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The chunky rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 reflected the re-opening of the services sector and was accompanied by a further increase in employment. But a combination of high inflation, rising interest... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (August) The ZEW survey fell again in August and is at a level consistent with the economy contracting. We now think a recession is unavoidable in the second half of this year as the impact of high energy... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin office rebound to run out of steam Rents in the Dublin prime office market rose rapidly in H1 2022, supported by a continued recovery in occupier demand. However, a cooling jobs market and strong supply pipeline mean that a slowdown is... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy crisis hotting up The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal... 12th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Why we expect a euro-zone recession We think the euro-zone will soon fall into recession as high inflation, tighter monetary policy and weak global growth take their toll. While the economy should recover next year, the rebound will be... 11th August 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rhine troubles add to pressure on German industry The fall in the Rhine’s water level is a small problem for German industry compared to the gas crisis, or indeed the recent shortage of semiconductors. But if it persists until December it could... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How big is the threat of an end to Russian gas exports? An end to Russian gas exports to Europe would prompt us to forecast a deeper recession in the euro-zone this winter than we currently anticipate. The hit would come partly through higher inflation... 9th August 2022 · 21 mins read
