Europe Chart Pack ECB to press on with rate hikes as gas crisis intensifies European gas prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past month, rising to a peak of €340/MWh before falling back to around €240 to leave them about 50% higher than at the time of the ECB’s... 7th September 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The 0.8% q/q increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 will be as good as it gets for a long time. A recession looks inevitable in the coming quarters and the subsequent recovery is likely to be sluggish. 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nord Stream shut-off adds to risks facing Germany Gazprom’s decision to shut Nord Stream 1 indefinitely has added to the risks facing Germany’s economy, but the size of the economic damage is still highly uncertain. And the €65bn fiscal package... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) The small rise in euro-zone retail sales volumes in July only partly reversed the previous month’s big fall, and with consumer confidence very weak and the final PMI surveys for August suggesting that... 5th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for double digit inflation and recession There has been some good news this week – including July’s labour market data and the continued rise in gas stocks – but the big picture is still very bleak, not least because even after the steep... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment to rise, but not surge We expect the looming recession in the euro-zone to cause the region’s unemployment rate to rise to 7.5% by the middle of next year. But this would still be historically low and is unlikely to be... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (July) The fall in the euro-zone unemployment rate in July to a record low of 6.6% is likely to be as good as it gets. The region faces a difficult winter and recession looms. So the jobless rate is likely... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update A lot more pain to come for European currencies Despite their precipitous fall against the dollar this year and last, we think the euro, sterling, and most other European currencies will weaken further over the next twelve month as the economic... 31st August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Aug.) The further increases in headline and core inflation in August, and likelihood that they will keep rising, will add to the pressure on the ECB to step up the pace of tightening. The balance of... 31st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Aug.) The further decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in August echoes the message from the other business surveys that the euro-zone economy is on the verge of recession as sky-high energy... 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB as hawkish as Fed at Jackson Hole While attention has understandably focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech made last Friday, there were also important interventions over the weekend by ECB policymakers. These... 29th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Soaring energy costs, wage inflation trending higher The surge in natural gas prices amid supply concerns this week piled on the economic gloom for the euro-zone and we have revised our growth forecasts down further. But price pressures remain intense... 26th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s gas crisis The surge in natural gas prices is a key reason why we expect Italy to fall into recession soon. If Russia stopped exporting gas to Europe entirely, Italy would suffer more than most but less than... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in EZ bonds unlikely to last, especially in the periphery While we doubt that today’s drop in euro-zone government bond yields will be sustained, we don’t expect “core” yields to increase much from here. In contrast, we still forecast “peripheral” yields to... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
