Europe Rapid Response Italian General Election Right-wing victory not immediate concern, but long-term risks remain The widely-anticipated right-wing coalition victory in Italy’s general election does not pose an immediate risk to bond markets... 26th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to raise rates further, and perhaps faster We revised up our forecasts for the ECB’s key policy rate this week, and now see it peaking at 3% next year rather than 2%. Moreover, we think there is a growing chance of a 100bp rate hike next month... 23rd September 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September) September’s PMI surveys are consistent with a small decline in euro-zone GDP in Q3. And the increases in the prices indices suggest that inflation is not yet at a turning point. 23rd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September) September’s PMI surveys are consistent with a small decline in euro-zone GDP in Q3. And the increases in the prices indices suggest that inflation is not yet at a turning point. The further fall in... 23rd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB unlikely to follow Japan with FX intervention Direct FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro is not out of the question, but we think that it would take a much bigger depreciation of the single currency to force policymakers to act. 22nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB deposit rate to hit 3% next year The strength and breadth of inflationary pressure in the euro-zone, together with policymakers’ determination to bring inflation down, has prompted us to revise our interest rate forecasts up. We now... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Mild correction, but soaring inflation poses downside risks The economic backdrop has deteriorated, with the euro-zone set to enter recession this year, while inflation has continued to beat expectations. This will weigh on property demand across all sectors... 16th September 2022 · 33 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More evidence of stagflation, but no gas price cap yet Figures released this week brought yet more evidence that the euro-zone is heading for recession. But given that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong, we doubt that will stop the ECB from... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (August) Final inflation data for August confirm that price pressures are very strong and broad-based. While energy and food inflation are particularly high, measures of underlying and domestic inflation are... 16th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q2) The pick-up in euro-zone hourly wage costs in Q2, along with a big upward revision to Q1, on the face of it suggests that pay pressures in the region continued to build. The detail provides a more... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July) July’s 2.3% monthly decline in euro-zone industrial production was largely due to a big fall in Ireland’s output. But even excluding Ireland, production decreased in July, with energy-intensive... 14th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions on Europe’s energy crisis response European policymakers have been discussing how to tackle skyrocketing energy prices in the region to ease the financial pain for households and firms this winter. In this Update, we answer five key... 12th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB QT would exacerbate bond market risks Reports that the ECB will soon start debating QT add to the risks facing euro-zone government bond markets. While the Bank could still expand its holdings of peripheral sovereign debt through the PEPP... 12th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession on the cards, but ECB goes big regardless The ECB delivered a chunky 75bp rate hike this week and signalled more large rate rises are to come even as it acknowledged that the euro-zone economy was likely to fall into recession. That’s... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What the hawkish ECB means for markets A hawkish ECB probably means there’s little respite in sight for euro-zone bonds, but we doubt it will boost the euro. 8th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further aggressive ECB hikes to come The ECB is almost certain to follow today’s 75bp rate hike with further aggressive increases in the coming months. We doubt that even a recession would cause the Bank to halt rate hikes. Against that... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
