Europe Commercial Property Update What does recession mean for German prime offices? German prime office rental growth is expected to slow sharply next year as the economy experiences the deepest recession in the euro-zone. Even so, we don’t expect rental growth to underperform as the... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Timing and nature of “pivots” will vary The dovish tilt among central banks has led to more talk of “pivots”, but this will mean different things for different banks. The ECB may be shifting to a slower pace of tightening, but the peak in... 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & Flash HICP (October) The increase in euro-zone GDP in Q3 does not alter our view that the euro-zone is on the cusp of a recession. But with inflation having jumped to well over 10%, the ECB will prioritise price stability... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still a long way from a pivot This week’s data releases have done nothing to change our key calls on the euro-zone economy: that it is heading for a deeper recession and higher inflation than most expect, and that the ECB will be... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (October) Renewed inflation shockers in Germany, France and Italy in October pour cold water on expectations that the ECB’s softer tone on rate hikes yesterday will pave the way for a “pivot”. We continue to... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (October) The further fall in the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator in October adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is contracting. But the labour market still looks tight and firms’... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update European investment slowdown intensifying An acceleration of the slowdown in European commercial property investment in Q3 is evidence that economic growth concerns, higher interest rates and tightening credit standards are weighing heavily... 28th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3 2022) The unexpected resilience of Germany’s economy in Q3, with GDP rising 0.3% q/q, has probably only postponed the recession which we now expect to begin in the fourth quarter. Business surveys show that... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect a big further rally in core EZ government bonds Despite some dovish elements in today’s ECB policy announcement, we still think “core” government bond yields in the euro-zone will stay fairly high even if, as we expect, yields begin to tumble... 27th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pace of hikes to slow, but deposit rate will still hit 3% After raising rates by 75bp today, the ECB laid the groundwork for a slower pace of tightening to come. But we still think that the deposit rate will reach 3% next year. And while the Bank will set... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Helsinki office vacancy to edge higher Helsinki office vacancy jumped in Q3 and is likely to trend higher over the next couple of years as occupier demand weakens, completions rise and there are fewer office-to-residential conversions. As... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Market strains create new dilemmas for central banks As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (September) Money and lending growth accelerated in September, but the latest Bank Lending Survey revealed that there was a sharp drop in loan demand and that banks have become much more cautious about lending... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Europe’s natural gas price will be higher next year We expect European natural gas prices to be high in 2023 as the EU will need to replace Russian gas supply for the entire year. This means demand for LNG imports will be strong, even if gas... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
