Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) The unexpected strength of euro-zone industrial production in September was largely due to the rebound in vehicles production and distortions affecting Ireland’s data. While vehicle output may... 14th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Construction cooling, fiscal rules and pivots We think euro-zone financial markets are getting ahead of themselves if they are sensing an imminent “pivot” by the ECB following the lower-than-expected US CPI number released yesterday. Indeed, we... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further declines in store for Paris prime retail rents Falls in Paris prime retail rents are set to continue into 2023 as weaker domestic and foreign spending weigh on tenant demand. And while the prospects for both are brighter for 2024, we think the... 11th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (October) The rise in core inflation in Germany in October confirms that underlying price pressure in the country are still building. We expect the core rate to remain well above 2% throughout next year. 11th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update If it happens at all, ECB QT will be very slow The ECB might start quantitative tightening next year but that’s not guaranteed, and even if it does so we doubt that it will make much of a dent in its government bond holdings. As a result, interest... 9th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to keep hiking as stagflation intensifies The latest activity indicators show that the economy contracted in October, and the forward-looking measures of new orders and expectations suggest that the downturn will get worse. We have pencilled... 8th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s increase in euro-zone retail sales is unlikely to be sustained. Falling real incomes and rock bottom consumer confidence suggest that household spending will fall sharply over the winter... 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) German industrial production rose significantly in September but we doubt this is a sign of things to come. With industry facing headwinds from high energy costs, rising interest rates and cooling... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why our euro-zone GDP forecast is below consensus Despite energy price caps and direct support for households, we think euro-zone private consumption will fall further than most anticipate in the coming months, and we expect investment and exports to... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Don’t miss the bigger picture in natural gas markets While front-month European natural gas prices have fallen sharply as concerns have eased around shortages this winter, longer-dated futures haven’t fallen by as much. That reflects how difficult it... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Sifting through a week of ECB comments The raft of comments by ECB policymakers this week suggests that further rate hikes are on the horizon, but that the pace of tightening will slow soon. And with officials stressing how difficult it is... 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The final euro-zone PMIs for October paint a clear picture of falling activity and sky-high inflation. We expect the ECB to prioritise the fight against inflation and press on with raising the deposit... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update What the latest central bank signals mean for markets The differing tones of the Fed, ECB and BoE at their recent meetings have seen yields rise in the US more than elsewhere and reignited the rally in the US dollar. That pattern could last a few more... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Goods price pressures still intense The recent easing of global supply chain problems could put some downward pressure on euro-zone goods inflation soon. But equipment shortages are still a major problem for manufacturers, while their... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (September) The fall in the euro-zone unemployment rate to 6.6% in September shows that the labour market remained very tight even as the economy headed towards recession. We expect unemployment to rise in the... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
