Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (November) 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation is nearing its peak We think that headline inflation in the euro-zone is nearing its peak and will begin to fall quite sharply early next year. But the core rate will probably peak a little later and decline more slowly. 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November) The flash PMIs for November add to the evidence that the economy will contract in Q4. The price indices suggest that inflation will soon peak, but they remain extremely high by past standards. 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: budget hurdle cleared, but debt risks remain Italy’s draft 2023 budget confirms that, for now, the new right-wing government is committed to fiscal responsibility. As a result, the risk of turbulence in BTP markets has fallen, but it remains... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think Bund yields will fall by less than Treasury yields Although we think the yields of high-grade, long-dated government bonds will fall in general in the next couple of years, we expect those of Bunds to fall by less than those of Treasuries, as... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of recent German wage agreements Wage growth in Germany will be far lower next year than some headlines about recent wage deals suggest, but it will still rise above levels compatible with core inflation of 2%. 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think euro-zone equities have further to fall Our downbeat economic forecasts for the euro-zone underpin our view that equity markets there will fall further in the coming months. Within the region, we think the downside risks for equity prices... 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What next for BTPs? It might seem surprising that the spread between the yields of 10-year government bonds in debt-laden Italy and Germany has plummeted by more than 50bp over the past month or so, to <190bp, given the... 18th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update October CPI: US/Europe contrast to endure in 2023 The October inflation data highlighted a contrast between the US and Europe, with core price pressures easing materially in the US but staying stronger in the euro-zone and UK. We think this will be... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Sharpest fall in all-property values since 2009 Q1 Higher interest rates and a weaker outlook for economic activity led to a more significant rise in property yields in Q3. While quarterly rental rises remained solid, particularly for offices and... 18th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession to begin in Q4 as inflation broadens We doubt that the recent strength in some of the official euro-zone activity data will last. The timelier surveys unanimously point to weaker activity to come, and the headwinds to growth from rising... 18th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Core inflation will stay above 2% until 2025 Next year will be characterised by falling headline inflation, which should help to prevent interest rate expectations and bond yields from rising much further. But we also expect core inflation to... 17th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (October) Final inflation data for October confirm that price pressures strengthened and became more broad-based. Unlike in the US and UK, there is little sign that goods inflation has passed its peak. While... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Irish statistical quirks flattering EZ growth rate Euro-zone industrial production and GDP have been stronger than we had expected so far this year. Several factors have contributed to this, but one of them is the distortions to Ireland’s economic... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) Euro-zone GDP growth slowed to just 0.2% q/q in Q3 and with all of the timelier surveys pointing downwards, the economy looks set to fall into recession in Q4. Nevertheless, surveys of firms’ hiring... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
