Europe Economics Update Germany and Spain HICP (Aug.) Inflation figures for Germany and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation may have fallen to the ECB’s 2% target in August and that the core rate edged down. That paves the way for a September... 29th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime office rent gains to beat consensus expectations Prime office rents look set to rise by more than we had previously expected over the next few years given still low CBD vacancy, preferences for prime space and cuts to the supply pipeline in 2025-26... 29th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Progress towards Capital Markets Union will be slow Capital Markets Union (CMU) is regarded by many European policymakers as one of the key reforms needed to close the gap between EU and US productivity. But a full CMU is a long way off, and in any... 28th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No need to cry over subsidised milk This week’s EU-China spat over EV and dairy duties was interpreted by the EU’s Chief diplomat as a sign that a trade war may be “unavoidable”, but we think it is actually evidence that both sides will... 23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU semiconductor industry will continue to lag behind Although the EU is making progress in expanding its semiconductor production capacity, including through a new plant in Dresden, it is still a long way behind the US and Asia and is unlikely to catch... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2024) A stabilisation of property yields and solid rent growth mean that euro-zone all-property values increased in Q2 for the first time in two years. However, market sentiment remains very weak and... 23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Big fall in negotiated wage inflation The scale of the fall in negotiated wage inflation in Q2 was largely due to one-off payments made in Germany in March but not repeated in Q2. However, the underlying trend in wage inflation is clearly... 22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August 2024) The rise in the flash PMIs for August is not as good as it looks as it was largely due to a boost from the Paris Olympics and the survey still points to GDP growth slowing in Q3. With price pressures... 22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services inflation will start falling again soon There are good reasons to expect services inflation to start falling again towards the end of this year and in 2025. But as long as wage growth remains high, services inflation will stay strong too. 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024) Commercial property valuations worsened slightly in Q2 across all sectors as bond yields rose while property yields held steady. However, the decline in government bond yields so far in Q3 means... 20th August 2024 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How worrying is German wage inflation? In our view, the concerns which were raised again this week about a wage-price spiral in Germany look overdone. The Indeed tracker suggests that wage pressures have eased since late 2022 and there are... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Data improving, but German retail prospects still weak Despite better occupier data in H1, the weak consumer backdrop and still elevated vacancy mean we expect German retail rents to only hold steady this year. Thereafter, we expect rental gains to lag... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2, 2nd est.), Employment (Q2) and Industrial Production (June) 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Market “turmoil” not a big concern for euro-zone The brief period of turmoil in global markets which continued earlier this week should not have a lasting impact on the euro-zone. Most of the market moves were small and have already been largely... 9th August 2024 · 8 mins read
