Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (November 2024) The small uptick in euro-zone industrial production in November will be of little relief to the beleaguered sector. Surveys suggest that production will remain subdued over the coming months and... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German GDP (2024) Preliminary GDP data for Germany suggest there is still no sign of the country exiting stagnation, with GDP down slightly in both Q4 and in 2024 as a whole. We forecast a very small cyclical recovery... 15th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Madrid offices will continue to outperform Madrid has seen some of the region’s strongest prime office rental growth in the recent past. While the factors supporting this surge may weaken slightly over time, we think that rent and returns... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update CDU Agenda 2030 won’t turn Germany around The CDU’s economic policy agenda, released today, clearly recognises the scale of Germany’s economic challenges and proposes some sensible policies to address them. But some of the measures are not... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to keep cutting; bond vigilantes returning? The continued strength of services inflation means ECB policymakers will feel in no hurry to slash interest rates, but we still think the deposit rate will fall from 3.0% currently to 1.5% in Q3... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Assessing the risks to energy prices While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks –... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2024) 2024 likely marked the bottom in all-property values in Europe, but we expect further falls in the US in 2025. That said, US performance should improve further ahead, outpacing the euro-zone over the... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov. 24) The 0.1% m/m increase in euro-zone retail sales in November was a little worse than expected and follows a fall in sales of 0.3% in October. This suggests that aggregate retail sales may have declined... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the “periphery” continue to outperform? The outperformance of the peripheral economies since early 2022 is likely to continue over the next year, supported by high immigration, tourism growth and Next Generation EU funding. That said... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Nov.) German industrial production picked up in November. But the level of output was still very low by past standards and with industry facing several structural headwinds we expect the sector to continue... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2025 Against a backdrop of lower interest rates and weak economic growth in much of Europe, we think the recovery in property values will continue at a gradual pace in 2025. Our forecast for euro-zone... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (December 2024) The EC survey is broadly consistent with euro-zone GDP stagnating in Q4. It also suggests that inflationary pressures remain sticky. 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our key calls for 2024 The end of the downturn in the European property market came in 2024 as forecast, though the euro-zone performed better than we had expected. That primarily reflected the strength of the prime office... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (December 2024) The continued stickiness of euro-zone services inflation means that the ECB is likely to keep cutting interest rates only slowly even as the economic outlook remains poor. 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Flash HICP (December) Data for Germany and Spain suggest euro-zone inflation was higher than expected in December. However, we still think that inflation is likely to undershoot the ECB’s forecasts later this year causing... 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
