Europe Economics Weekly Some (moderately) good news on inflation and activity Data released this week suggest that headline inflation in the euro-zone has passed its peak, but that core price pressures remain strong. Meanwhile, the latest activity indicators have been a bit... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Nov.) Final HICP and ESI (Dec.) The fall in inflation and improvement in economic sentiment in December suggest that the euro-zone’s case of stagflation is not quite as acute as feared a few months ago. Nonetheless, a technical... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Inflation and EC Survey (Dec.), Retail Sales (Nov.) 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Property Drop-In: How bad will it get for the UK and euro-zone in 2023? 1673946000 After post-pandemic property rallies hit the skids last year, what will 2023 bring for UK and euro-zone markets?
Europe Economics Update What lower gas prices mean for the euro-zone We have revised our European wholesale gas price forecast down and, as a result, now expect euro-zone inflation to fall more rapidly than we had previously anticipated. In turn, this means that real... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the New Year turnaround in euro-zone bonds Although we see some near-term risk due to the still-hawkish ECB, we expect the yield of 10-year German Bunds to decline further by end-2023. Drop-Ins – The World In 2023 (10-11 January): Will 2023 be... 4th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) December’s final PMIs suggest the euro-zone economy held up better than we expected in Q4, but are still consistent with a mild recession. They also suggest price pressures remain very high. 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (December) The sharp fall in German inflation in December was due to one-off energy subsidies so it will probably reverse in January. Headline inflation is still likely to decline rapidly in March, but we think... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update EU gas price cap unlikely to be triggered The EU’s new policy to limit gas prices is unlikely to be activated next year. And with so many caveats built in, it seems the only thing countries agreed on was that a cap was indeed needed to show... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Event The World in 2023 - What to Expect in Advanced and Emerging Economies 1673337600 Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and colleagues from across our macro services held a special briefing on what to expect from major DMs and EMs in 2023.
Europe Economic Outlook Recession will do little to dampen price pressures We think the euro-zone is now at the start of a recession, driven by high inflation, tightening financial conditions and weak external demand, and anticipate two quarters of contraction followed by a... 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) Euro-zone wage growth has accelerated this year and we expect it to stay strong. In turn, this will contribute to core inflation remaining above 2% in 2023. 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) The further increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in December and the general improvement in the surveys over the past two months suggests the outlook for the German economy has improved. But we... 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (December) 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
