US Commercial Property Update Assessing the physical climate change risks to property The physical risks facing commercial property are substantial with extreme weather events like floods and wildfires set to increase in both the US and Europe over the coming decades. Property markets... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong start to Q2, 50bp May hike still on the cards The latest surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy started Q2 on a strong footing. With underlying price pressures also still strong, we think a 50bp hike at the ECB meeting in May remains the most... 21st April 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too optimistic about euro-zone yields? Listed markets in Europe have been surprisingly downbeat about prospects for real estate relative to other regions. While we think that largely reflects mis-pricing in equity markets, it provides a... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Persistent UK inflation unlikely to preclude lower Gilt yields While we think investors are correct to price in more persistent UK inflation, we think a sharp decline in core inflation next year will allow the Bank of England to cut rates by more than most expect... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The rally in euro-zone equities may reverse before long We think euro-zone equities will struggle as the region’s economy weakens more than investors expect. 19th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A tale of two listed real estate markets While US equity REITs are a long way from discounting the “best of times” for US commercial real estate (CRE) over the coming quarters, listed real estate stocks in Europe appear braced for something... 17th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests to leave some questions unanswered Recent events have highlighted that meeting regulatory capital and liquidity requirements does not guarantee that banks will be financially stable. The forthcoming EU bank stress test results should... 17th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Easing supply constraints supporting activity The latest official activity data suggest that the euro-zone economy posted a small expansion in Q1, and we expect April’s PMIs, published next week, to be consistent with continued growth. The... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Banking troubles won’t stop ECB hiking to 4% We think that the recent stress in the banking sector has had little impact on the outlook for monetary policy in the euro-zone. While there were significant outflows of bank deposits in the five... 11th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weighing up the risks from open-ended property funds In light of the recent flare-up in commercial property related financial distress and news that investors have been rapidly pulling money out of property funds in Europe, we are re-sending this Update... 11th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook beyond Q1 bleak, more Italy energy support The latest survey and activity data suggest that, after stagnating in Q4, euro-zone GDP returned to growth in the first quarter. But a recession in the remainder of 2023 still seems likely to us... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The risks to banking from commercial property Real estate exposures have not been central to financial developments in Europe over recent weeks, but, as property prices correct after a decade of steady expansion, some strains are likely to emerge... 6th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) The second consecutive big increase in German industrial production in February all but confirms that GDP returned to growth in Q1. The industrial resilience may continue in the coming months but we... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
