Europe Economics Weekly France’s improving labour market There is no sign yet that the remarkable improvement in France’s labour market is going into reverse. But we suspect it will do later this year as monetary policy tightening takes effect. Meanwhile... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Brighter outlook for Paris office rents Although recent data suggest that Paris offices had a slow start to the year, we think this weakness will be short-lived. Indeed, with demand prospects looking favourable and new supply set to slow... 10th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Election clouds outlook for Greece Greece has arguably been the positive surprise in the euro-zone over the past few years and near-term prospects look good. However, the forthcoming election may usher in a coalition government which... 10th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian debt sustainability revisited Our central scenario is that Italy’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will decline gradually in the long-run. However, the government will need to maintain sizeable primary budget surpluses to make that... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Core inflation too high for ECB to stop hiking April’s inflation data provided little sign that underlying price pressures are easing. Admittedly, the core rate edged down from 5.7% y/y in March to 5.6%, which was the first decline in 15 months... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Signs of economic weakness, rates to peak at 3.75% Hard data and surveys released this week suggests to us that although the euro-zone economy may again avoid a contraction in Q2, it will remain very weak. Otherwise, we have lowered our forecast for... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the euro to reverse course before long We think that the tailwinds supporting the rebound in the euro against the US dollar have largely run their course, and still forecast the EUR/USD rate to return to parity as advanced economies fall... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Shifting yield gaps probably not enough to sustain euro strength The ECB’s 25bp rate hike today and subsequent comments from President Lagarde suggest the Bank will continue to hike for a while longer than the Fed. Although this may shift government bond yield gaps... 4th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update How US & E-Z bonds might fare as rate hikes conclude We forecast small further falls in the yields of long-dated US Treasuries and euro-zone sovereign bonds between now and the end of next year, as disinflation picks up steam and central banks turn more... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB slows the pace but the journey goes on The ECB’s decision to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 3.25% was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, President Lagarde’s repeated statement that the Bank is not pausing, and our view that... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Double jeopardy if you bank in Spain Over the past year, Spanish households have seen a bigger increase in their cost of borrowing than those of any other large euro-zone economy, but the increase in the interest paid on deposits has... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Household spending squeeze to continue Policy tightening over the past year has pushed up euro-zone households’ interest costs substantially and is a key explanation for household consumption falling. With interest costs set to rise a lot... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Mar.) The euro-zone unemployment rate fell slightly in March and looks set to stay low in the coming months amid evidence that hiring intentions have increased. Even if the labour market softens further... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from the Q1 GDP data Available data for Q1 suggest that the global economy had a better start to the year than previously feared. That seems to have reflected the post zero-COVID rebound in China and its effects, a boost... 3rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strength of Berlin office rents won’t last Berlin offices have been outperforming those in other German markets for some time. But Q1 data suggest that growth has begun to falter, and we think that the recent strength of the market won’t last. 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (April) The fact that core HICP inflation edged down in April will not resolve the debate between a 25bp and 50bp hike for the ECB this week – particularly as the core rate is still close to its all-time high... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
